Plan 1638 Modeled Plan · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$263,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 955 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 61 Camellia St, Palm Coast, FL 32137; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $260,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family new construction (Plan 1638 Modeled)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,638 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Plan 1638 Modeled)

🏗️ New construction. The $263,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $321,048.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,242 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Bradmore Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,574 (-4%)	3mo	$315,000	$200	73
48 Ballard Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,654 (+1%)	3mo	$325,000	$196	70
10 Barring	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (+2%)	3mo	$305,000	$183	67
29 Beckner Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (+2%)	1mo	$282,000	$169	66
7 Beechwood Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (+8%)	3mo	$336,000	$190	59
123 Boulder Rock Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (+2%)	0mo	$366,000	$219	59
171 Bayside Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-9%)	0mo	$180,000	$120	59
102 Beauford Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-8%)	1mo	$361,500	$241	54
23 Brownstone Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+11%)	0mo	$336,900	$185	52
57 Botany Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-6%)	1mo	$245,000	$160	49
70 Bennett Ln	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,810 (+10%)	1mo	$450,000	$249	47
32 Barkley Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (-10%)	2mo	$338,000	$230	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,220
• Equity at exit: $47,869

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-129,410
• Equity at exit: $27,758

Cash invested: $89,893 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1616
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,684
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,816/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,808

Max offer price $256,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-336	+0% $-447	+5% $-558	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-536	+0% $-447	+5% $-359	+10% $-270
Rate	-1.0pp $-285	-0.5pp $-366	base $-447	+0.5pp $-530	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,262
• Closing costs: $9,631
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
273 Beachway Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,450	$1.37	24d	1	0.23mi
26 Brooklyn Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,250	$1.21	20d	1	0.46mi
24 Barring Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,875	$1.12	24d	1	0.48mi
44 Barrington Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,250	$1.21	15d	1	0.52mi
53 Brownstone Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1582	$1,950	$1.23	4d	1	0.55mi
20 Bressler Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2141	$2,060	$0.96	24d	1	0.62mi
69 Beckner Ln Unit NA Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,998	$1.42	4d	1	0.64mi
63 Beaverdam Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,895	$1.19	4d	1	0.65mi
102 Brittany Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1902	$2,450	$1.29	24d	1	0.66mi
121 Pine Lakes Pkwy N Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$1,966	$1.80	4d	10	0.67mi
73 Bruce Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	2245	$2,189	$0.98	4d	1	0.67mi
78 Belvedere Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,750	$1.12	15d	1	0.77mi
55 Brittany Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,850	$1.44	20d	1	0.82mi
113 Brunswick Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,550	$1.29	4d	1	0.88mi
134 Beechwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,870	$1.37	22d	1	0.92mi
1 Fanshawe Ln Unit 1B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,350	$1.13	24d	1	1.06mi
1 Fanshawe Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,350	$1.13	15d	1	1.06mi
116 Wellwood Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,475	$1.21	24d	1	1.15mi
75A Wellwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.16mi
59 Wellhaven Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	15d	1	1.16mi
75 Wellwood Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.16mi
45 Wellham Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	4d	1	1.17mi
129 Wellwood Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	24d	1	1.18mi
35 Wellham Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,750	$1.35	24d	1	1.21mi
12 Bunker View Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,725	$1.08	4d	1	1.22mi
11 Birchtree Way Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	4d	1	1.34mi
59 Wellstream Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,795	$1.31	24d	1	1.35mi
57 Wellstream Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,900	$0.93	24d	1	1.35mi
14 Bunker View Dr Unit 2 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,645	$1.38	4d	1	1.41mi
42 Farmsworth Dr Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,995	$1.49	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $263,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $263,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,990 Active 947 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $263,990 Active 945 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $263,990 Active 944 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $263,990 Active 943 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $263,990 Active 942 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,990 Active 938 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $263,990 Active 937 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $263,990 Active 936 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $263,990 Active 935 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,990 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,984
• − Property taxes: −$4,816
• − Insurance: −$1,605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − Depreciation: −$9,340
• Taxable loss: −$11,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B