250 Shelter Ln. Ln · Amherst, VA 24521

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1971 0.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offering the convenience of one-level living and modern updates throughout. Step inside to discover new flooring, stylish fixtures, and an inviting feel that makes this home move-in ready. The updated kitchen features oak cabinets and stainless steel appliances providing both functionality and contemporary appeal. Outside, you'll love relaxing on the charming Craftsman-style front porch, or entertaining family and friends on the spacious back deck overlooking the large backyardperfect for gatherings, gardening, pets, or play. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance property with mo

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Oak cabinets
• One-level living

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CRAFTSMAN-STYLE FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric water heater; Vinyl flooring; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Amherst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#90 in VA, #2,933 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Amherst County Public School District (rural): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #94 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 318 students, 78% FRL); Amherst Middle (math 30% / reading 66%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 347 students, 77% FRL); Amherst County High (math 57% / reading 81%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 1,260 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 42% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 228 units permitted in Amherst County in 2024 (108 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amherst County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $210k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,643 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-39,828
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-42,495
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24521

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $432/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $194,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-30	+0% $-89	+5% $-388	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-146	+0% $-89	+5% $-33	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-36	base $-89	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $219,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $432 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,289/yr (+$107/mo · 298.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$432
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100210
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,945
• Composite: 43.96/100
• National rank: #2900
• State rank: #94 of 131 in VA

Livability — Amherst

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #2933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,101

Population outlook (Amherst County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,790 people
• By 2030: 28,332 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 24,963 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 21,468 · -27.9%
• By 2075: 14,111 · -52.6%
• By 2100: 9,344 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Amherst

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 31.4% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -16.2pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.30%
• Current HPI: 177.7717
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $219,900 LMLS
• 2026-03-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $143,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $147,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $432 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.