2937 Seneca St · St. Joseph, MO 64507

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 769 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1907 6,163 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

large 2-story home with potential for 4 beds, covered front & back porches, 1cd garage via rear alley, 2 full baths. This property is eligible under the FIRST LOOK INITIATIVE which expires after 20 full DOM. No investor offers until first look period expires. No offers regardless of buyer type will not be negotiated within the 1st 7-days of listing. All persons entering the property must sign the Release & Hold Harmless Agreement which can be found under 'Supplements'.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Detached garage
• 6,163 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported (769); Below-grade finished area source reported
• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 1.5-story floor plan
• Construction: Stone and frame construction; Other roof type; Originally built over 100 years ago
• Exterior features: Property not in a flood plain; Lot approximately 6,163 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one bedroom in the basement)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Basement with a bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($943 rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkway Elem. (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 379 students, 99% FRL); Central High (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,728 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.92%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Seneca St	0.05mi	3/2.0	838 (+9%)	0mo	$137,500	$164	82
2919 Olive St	0.13mi	3/2.0	789 (+3%)	12mo	$163,900	$208	80
2829 Penn St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (+10%)	2mo	$144,900	$170	65
3307 Monterey St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	774 (+1%)	6mo	$141,500	$183	60
3140 Charles St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-0%)	12mo	$129,000	$168	54
406 S 31st St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (+7%)	7mo	$150,000	$183	52
2605 Renick St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	835 (+9%)	8mo	$105,000	$126	47
3015 Edmond St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-9%)	2mo	$105,000	$150	46
3505 Seneca St	0.68mi	3/1.0	850 (+10%)	11mo	$159,900	$188	38
3214 Jackson St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	681 (-11%)	8mo	$50,000	$73	36
808 S 23rd St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (+10%)	8mo	$75,000	$88	35
3425 Sacramento St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+12%)	9mo	$119,900	$139	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $16,349
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $45,768
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64507

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $946/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $457

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $412	-5% $397	+0% $383	+5% $369	+10% $355
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $346	+0% $383	+5% $420	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $396	base $383	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3128 Midland St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$975	$0.88	44d	1	0.50mi
2408 Jules St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.94mi
425 N 25th St St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	44d	1	1.02mi
303 S 13th St St Joseph, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.33mi
1106 Olive St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	1.36mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 22 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	866	$998	$1.15	44d	1	1.39mi
917 N 24th St Unit 1 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	933	$925	$0.99	44d	1	1.40mi
2901 Frederick Ave Saint Joseph, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $49,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 301-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $49,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$946
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$905
• − Management: −$905
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$974
• After-tax cash flow: $3,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 14,159

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.49%
• Current HPI: 165.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $49,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Listed $59,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-23 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-07 Listed $39,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · +56.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.