6411 Willet Rd · Wylie, TX 75407

$237,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2025 5,184 sqft lot Est $254k · 6% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR- Tillage Farms - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,661 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6314 Sandpiper Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,535 (-4%)	0mo	$207,999	$136	77
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	72
6414 Willet Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	1mo	$252,999	$180	72
6412 Longspur Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	70
6100 Pinion Trl	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,549 (-3%)	1mo	$237,490	$153	69
6508 Glade St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	66
123 Tall Cedar Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+3%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	64
210 Arbor Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+3%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	64
120 Redwood Rd	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,720 (+8%)	0mo	$255,990	$149	54
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-15%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	53
6110 Pinion Trl	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,419 (-11%)	1mo	$229,990	$162	51
204 Redwood Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-7%)	1mo	$237,990	$160	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,794
• Equity at exit: $35,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-74,977
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $223,451

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	0.13mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	12d	1	0.14mi
6505 Glade St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	0.16mi
600 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,100	$1.50	12d	1	0.20mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	43d	1	0.22mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	43d	1	0.24mi
134 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	18d	1	0.27mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	0.28mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	43d	1	0.29mi
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	3d	1	0.30mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	10d	1	0.31mi
613 Holleman Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	24d	1	0.31mi
6310 Sandpiper Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1549	$2,030	$1.31	11d	1	0.32mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	7d	1	0.32mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	43d	1	0.32mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	7d	1	0.34mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	43d	1	0.34mi
6311 Whimbrel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,795	$1.17	10d	1	0.34mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	24d	1	0.34mi
6222 Sandpiper Ln Unit NA Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	7d	1	0.34mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	43d	1	0.36mi
6533 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,900	$1.19	4d	1	0.36mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	16d	1	0.36mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	12d	1	0.37mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,560	$1.20	24d	1	0.37mi
732 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1570	$1,875	$1.19	11d	1	0.37mi
721 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,600	$1.04	24d	1	0.38mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	20d	1	0.39mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	2d	1	0.40mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	2d	1	0.40mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	43d	1	0.41mi
623 Linden Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,650	$1.16	43d	1	0.41mi
317 Clematis ST Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,800	$1.19	43d	1	0.42mi
323 Clematis ST Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	0.42mi
6744 Teal Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,790	$1.21	20d	1	0.43mi
801 Wagtail Dr , TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,975	$1.29	7d	1	0.44mi
812 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1309	$1,850	$1.41	43d	1	0.44mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	22d	1	0.44mi
803 Wagtail Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,605	$1.18	22d	1	0.44mi
656 Waymaker Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2015	$2,175	$1.08	11d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   price $237,999
3. 2026-02-21
   price $239,999
4. 2026-02-15
   listed $247,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$5,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $61/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $237,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $239,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $247,999 NTREIS