18667 San Salvo Dr Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$230,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,882 sqft · Land · 78 Days on market

Built 2024 2,901 sqft lot $122/sqft · 6% above area Est $216k · 6% over $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

“Honey, hit the brakes!!!” Step inside this stunning two-story home in Tavola West! With 1,602 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, it’s perfect for modern family living. The open living and dining area flows seamlessly into a sleek kitchen with stylish cabinetry, quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts a private bath and walk-in closet, with three additional bedrooms for comfort and privacy. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard, set on a premium lot with a sprinkler system, no rear neighbors for ultimate privacy a sun-drenched south-facing backyard, and a park right in front, this home is within walking distance to the new New Caney Elementary School opening August 2026. Enjoy Valley Ranch Town Center, Randall Reed Stadium, and quick access to Grand Parkway (TX-99) and I-69. With modern construction, privacy, and a prime location, this is a rare opportunity you don’t want to miss. Schedule your showing today and make it yours today!

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Two story home

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• SLEEK KITCHEN
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,210
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 6.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-27,576
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,025
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $311	+0% $246	+5% $181	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $160	+0% $246	+5% $332	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $304	base $246	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18635 Gravago Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$1,999	$0.94	45d	1	0.17mi
18243 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$1,725	$1.17	5d	1	0.23mi
18005 Pizzone Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	1980	$1,899	$0.96	19d	1	0.37mi
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	0d	1	0.57mi
19308 Via Vinovo Ct New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,100	$1.39	45d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $230,000 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    “Honey, hit the brakes!!!” Step inside this stunning two-story home in Tavola West! With 1,602 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, it’s perfect for modern family living. The open living and dining area flows seamlessly into a sleek kitchen with stylish cabinetry, quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts a private bath and walk-in closet, with three additional bedrooms for comfort and privacy. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard, set on a premium lot with a sprinkler system, no rear neighbors for ultimate privacy a sun-drenched south-facing backyard, and a park right in front, this home is within walking distance to the new New Caney Elementary School opening August 2026. Enjoy Valley Ranch Town Center, Randall Reed Stadium, and quick access to Grand Parkway (TX-99) and I-69. With modern construction, privacy, and a prime location, this is a rare opportunity you don’t want to miss. Schedule your showing today and make it yours today!

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $234,990 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    “Honey, hit the brakes!!!” Step inside this stunning two-story home in Tavola West! With 1,602 sq ft, 4 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, it’s perfect for modern family living. The open living and dining area flows seamlessly into a sleek kitchen with stylish cabinetry, quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts a private bath and walk-in closet, with three additional bedrooms for comfort and privacy. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard, set on a premium lot with a sprinkler system, no rear neighbors for ultimate privacy a sun-drenched south-facing backyard, and a park right in front, this home is within walking distance to the new New Caney Elementary School opening August 2026. Enjoy Valley Ranch Town Center, Randall Reed Stadium, and quick access to Grand Parkway (TX-99) and I-69. With modern construction, privacy, and a prime location, this is a rare opportunity you don’t want to miss. Schedule your showing today and make it yours today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,094/yr (+$258/mo · 277.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $3,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $234,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,115 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.