201 S 12th St · Tonkawa, OK 74653

$34,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · Other · 53 Days on market

Built 1925 Poor condition 0.30 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of Tonkawa, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home spans approximately 1,208 square feet on a generous 0.30-acre lot. With an estimated value of around $74,700, this property offers both comfort and potential. Built decades ago and lovingly maintained, it features a classic layout that’s ready for your personal touch. This property is a total of 8 lots, 4 are vacant land directly behind the house. The low annual taxes—just $160 in 2025—make it an affordable option for homeowners or investors alike. With an estimated rental income of $864 per month, it presents a compelling opportunity for steady returns. This home enjoys convenient access to trusted loca

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property status: Existing; Occupied by owner; Handicap accessible
• Financial info: Assumable: No; Loan qualification: Unknown
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; One level; East-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Chain link fencing; No additional exterior features listed; Below-ground storm shelter

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing gas range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Basement; Bonus room; Masonry fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $34k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tonkawa (town): math 16% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #179 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tonkawa Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 462 students, 0% FRL); Tonkawa Hs (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 447 statewide, top 26%, 216 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $438 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,980 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.97%
• DSCR: 4.47
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $36,411
• Equity at exit: $7,739

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $84,821
• Equity at exit: $7,734

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74653

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $297

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $34,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $49,900
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $7,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $5,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Significant work is needed to address the deteriorating exterior, interior, and HVAC systems.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Peeling paint on exterior and interior
• Major Siding — Damaged siding
• Major Windows — Dirty, broken glass
• Major Flooring — Worn-out carpet
• Major HVAC — Old, inefficient water heater

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint job — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New siding — Enhances exterior appearance and durability
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort
• Both HVAC upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Peeling paint on exterior and interior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Damaged siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Dirty, broken glass	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn-out carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC · Old, inefficient water heater	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint job — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New siding — Enhances exterior appearance and durability ↑
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both HVAC upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonkawa
• NCES district ID: 4030120
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,371
• Composite: 16.33/100
• National rank: #9207
• State rank: #179 of 270 in OK

Livability — Tonkawa

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #11096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonkawa, OK
• City population: 3,689
• Population (ZIP): 3,689

Population outlook (Kay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,389 people
• By 2030: 42,222 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 40,108 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 38,231 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 34,119 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 28,526 · -34.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 12% Native American 11% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.4) · D 24.4% · R 73.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -49.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.4 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Current HPI: 241.0167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $49,900 MLSOK
• 2026-04-24 Listed $55,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $49 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.