8610 Ardley Cir · Houston, TX 77088

$149,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1969 6,486 sqft lot $64/sqft · 43% below area Est $260k · 43% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * NO SHOWINGS AT THIS TIME. Welcome to 8610 Ardley Cir, a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering over 2,300 sq ft of potential. Generous cul-de-sac lot gives you the outdoor space and privacy that is hard to find at this price point. This property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to renovate and build equity. With a large floor plan, solid structure, and generous lot size, the possibilities are endless. The garage has been converted into a formal dining room, adding additional living space and flexibility to the layout. The home does need updates and repairs, making it a true value-added opportunity for those looking to customize or maximize return on investmen

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Large backyard
• Converted garage

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1969
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Utility room; Living room; Dining room; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,094/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2294% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.29%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,283
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -42.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8610 Ardley Cir	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,318 (0%)	0mo	$149,000	$64	100
8355 Whitecastle Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,329 (+0%)	12mo	$160,000	$69	71
1427 Tarberry Rd	0.15mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,049 (-12%)	13mo	$231,000	$113	58
919 Peach Spring Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,444 (+5%)	20mo	$390,000	$160	50
1103 N Beaver Bend Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (-7%)	12mo	$219,974	$102	40
8822 Bisley Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,037 (-12%)	10mo	$218,900	$107	39
1507 Beaver Bend Rd #770	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,010 (-13%)	15mo	$249,900	$124	38
918 Twinbrooke Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,045 (-12%)	13mo	$224,900	$110	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,467
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,747
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,768/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $539	+0% $497	+5% $455	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $414	+0% $497	+5% $579	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $535	base $497	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1495 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	5.0	2.5	1713	$1,750	$1.02	45d	1	0.29mi
8406 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	44d	1	0.53mi
8404 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	44d	1	0.53mi
8304 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	0.59mi
1032 Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	44d	1	1.34mi
1330 Blue Bell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1418	$1,790	$1.26	0d	7	1.39mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 840-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   status Active 840-char remark
3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 840-char remark
4. 2026-05-07
   price $149,000 840-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   listed $160,000 Active 840-char remark
6. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,768 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,768 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$3,768
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $3,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$939
• After-tax cash flow: $5,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,768 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.