409 Bridal Wreath Ave · Orange, TX 77630

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1955 8,407 sqft lot $104/sqft · 21% above area Est $103k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 409 Bridal Wreath, a property with endless potential! This home features a spacious layout and sits in an established neighborhood, offering both charm and convenience. While it may need some updates and TLC, it provides the perfect opportunity for buyers to create their dream home or for investors looking for their next project. With its great location near schools, shopping, and major highways, 409 Bridal Wreath is more than just a house—it’s a chance to build value and make it your own. Don’t miss out on this diamond in the rough!

Key facts

• 8,407 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

Tags

• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• GREAT LOCATION NEAR SCHOOLS
• GREAT LOCATION NEAR SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.08%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,089
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 21.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 Gardenia Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+4%)	1mo	$124,990	$100	85
504 Azalea Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+2%)	17mo	$105,000	$86	79
3415 Bowling Ln	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-12%)	4mo	$90,000	$85	65
6 Circle Q St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,090 (-10%)	11mo	$105,000	$96	64
10 Circle S	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-6%)	13mo	$105,000	$93	64
3627 Bowling Ln	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,135 (-6%)	15mo	$65,000	$57	64
3656 Hemlock St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,034 (-14%)	2mo	$69,900	$68	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $17,528
• Equity at exit: $42,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $70,005
• Equity at exit: $56,844

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	13d	1	0.13mi
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	21d	1	0.14mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	43d	1	0.17mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	43d	1	0.17mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.27mi
3726 Bowling Ln Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1045	$1,150	$1.10	43d	1	0.33mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 203 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,084	$1.08	13d	1	0.42mi
3615 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,275	$1.01	43d	1	0.45mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 315TWNHME Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,040	$0.86	21d	1	0.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Apt 105 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	21d	1	0.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 408 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,059	$1.06	43d	1	0.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 107 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	43d	1	0.48mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 404 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,254	$1.25	43d	1	0.48mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	13d	12	0.52mi
3714 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,450	$1.42	13d	1	0.53mi
316 Old Timers Rd Unit 316 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	0.62mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	13d	1	0.66mi
1120 28th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,500	$1.15	43d	1	0.71mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	43d	1	0.80mi
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	13d	1	0.80mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	13d	1	0.83mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	43d	1	0.90mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	43d	1	0.91mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	13d	1	0.99mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	13d	7	1.06mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	43d	1	1.32mi
1010 Highway 87 S Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,425	$1.62	13d	13	1.32mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	13d	27	1.37mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-01-05
   listed $125,000 Active 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   Welcome to 409 Bridal Wreath, a property with endless potential! This home features a spacious layout and sits in an established neighborhood, offering both charm and convenience. While it may need some updates and TLC, it provides the perfect opportunity for buyers to create their dream home or for investors looking for their next project. With its great location near schools, shopping, and major highways, 409 Bridal Wreath is more than just a house—it’s a chance to build value and make it your own. Don’t miss out on this diamond in the rough!

4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-10-02
   listed $125,000 Active
6. 2015-11-05
   soldstatus
7. 2015-09-24
   listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$32/yr (+$3/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 28% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-05 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2015-09-24 Listed $49,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.