15 Linwood Ave · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$190,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,807 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 4,400 sqft lot Est $262k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Lot of House for the Money in this 4 Bedroom Home with an Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Room, Family Room, Living Room, First Floor Laundry & 2.5 Car Garage. The House has a Newer Architectural Roof, Maintenance Free Siding, Appliances (Refrigerator, Gas Stove (Also has Electric Hook-Up), Washer & Dryer), Lots of Built-In Storage, Hardwood Floors, Updated Electric Panel Box with Circuit Breakers, A/C Wall Unit, Boiler Heat (around 2001), Programmable Thermostat, Gas Heat, 3 Ceiling Fans, Newer Vinyl Fencing (2019) with Private Yard, Basement, Enclosed Front Porch & Garage Opener. Further Decorating/Updates will make the house your own. Taxes After Basic STAR are $3,473. Open Houses are Saturday 11/30 & Sunday 12/1 (11:00 to 1:00). Offers due Before Noon on Wednesday Dec. 4th.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $190k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,015
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Fredericka St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,772 (-2%)	15mo	$192,500	$109	75
89 16th Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-7%)	3mo	$270,000	$160	69
96 Northeast Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-4%)	11mo	$321,999	$186	68
186 E Felton St	0.46mi	4/1.5	1,925 (+6%)	6mo	$279,900	$145	61
263 Stenzil St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (+0%)	10mo	$227,000	$125	60
1304 Payne Ave	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,759 (-3%)	11mo	$375,000	$213	49
29 6th Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,783 (-1%)	17mo	$222,600	$125	48
162 9th Ave	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-4%)	17mo	$120,000	$69	47
100 Greenwood Cir	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,735 (-4%)	18mo	$365,000	$210	43
142 10th Ave	0.42mi	4/1.5	2,029 (+12%)	19mo	$240,000	$118	42
153 8th Ave	0.55mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,560 (-14%)	12mo	$185,000	$119	35
301 Summit Blvd	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,587 (-12%)	15mo	$345,000	$217	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,674
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $49,275
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,097/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $363	+0% $309	+5% $255	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $227	+0% $309	+5% $391	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $358	base $309	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	2d	12	0.88mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $190,000 Active
4. 2026-04-21
   historical
5. 2026-03-14
   listed $199,900 Active
6. 2020-01-29
   soldstatus $84,900 Closed Sale or Rented 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   A Lot of House for the Money in this 4 Bedroom Home with an Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Room, Family Room, Living Room, First Floor Laundry & 2.5 Car Garage. The House has a Newer Architectural Roof, Maintenance Free Siding, Appliances (Refrigerator, Gas Stove (Also has Electric Hook-Up), Washer & Dryer), Lots of Built-In Storage, Hardwood Floors, Updated Electric Panel Box with Circuit Breakers, A/C Wall Unit, Boiler Heat (around 2001), Programmable Thermostat, Gas Heat, 3 Ceiling Fans, Newer Vinyl Fencing (2019) with Private Yard, Basement, Enclosed Front Porch & Garage Opener. Further Decorating/Updates will make the house your own. Taxes After Basic STAR are $3,473. Open Houses are Saturday 11/30 & Sunday 12/1 (11:00 to 1:00). Offers due Before Noon on Wednesday Dec. 4th.

7. 2020-01-29
   soldstatus $84,900

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   A Lot of House for the Money in this 4 Bedroom Home with an Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Room, Family Room, Living Room, First Floor Laundry & 2.5 Car Garage. The House has a Newer Architectural Roof, Maintenance Free Siding, Appliances (Refrigerator, Gas Stove (Also has Electric Hook-Up), Washer & Dryer), Lots of Built-In Storage, Hardwood Floors, Updated Electric Panel Box with Circuit Breakers, A/C Wall Unit, Boiler Heat (around 2001), Programmable Thermostat, Gas Heat, 3 Ceiling Fans, Newer Vinyl Fencing (2019) with Private Yard, Basement, Enclosed Front Porch & Garage Opener. Further Decorating/Updates will make the house your own. Taxes After Basic STAR are $3,473. Open Houses are Saturday 11/30 & Sunday 12/1 (11:00 to 1:00). Offers due Before Noon on Wednesday Dec. 4th.

8. 2019-12-05
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   A Lot of House for the Money in this 4 Bedroom Home with an Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Room, Family Room, Living Room, First Floor Laundry & 2.5 Car Garage. The House has a Newer Architectural Roof, Maintenance Free Siding, Appliances (Refrigerator, Gas Stove (Also has Electric Hook-Up), Washer & Dryer), Lots of Built-In Storage, Hardwood Floors, Updated Electric Panel Box with Circuit Breakers, A/C Wall Unit, Boiler Heat (around 2001), Programmable Thermostat, Gas Heat, 3 Ceiling Fans, Newer Vinyl Fencing (2019) with Private Yard, Basement, Enclosed Front Porch & Garage Opener. Further Decorating/Updates will make the house your own. Taxes After Basic STAR are $3,473. Open Houses are Saturday 11/30 & Sunday 12/1 (11:00 to 1:00). Offers due Before Noon on Wednesday Dec. 4th.

9. 2019-11-22
   listed $84,900 Active 806-char remark

   Show marketing remark (806 chars)

   A Lot of House for the Money in this 4 Bedroom Home with an Eat-In Kitchen, Dining Room, Family Room, Living Room, First Floor Laundry & 2.5 Car Garage. The House has a Newer Architectural Roof, Maintenance Free Siding, Appliances (Refrigerator, Gas Stove (Also has Electric Hook-Up), Washer & Dryer), Lots of Built-In Storage, Hardwood Floors, Updated Electric Panel Box with Circuit Breakers, A/C Wall Unit, Boiler Heat (around 2001), Programmable Thermostat, Gas Heat, 3 Ceiling Fans, Newer Vinyl Fencing (2019) with Private Yard, Basement, Enclosed Front Porch & Garage Opener. Further Decorating/Updates will make the house your own. Taxes After Basic STAR are $3,473. Open Houses are Saturday 11/30 & Sunday 12/1 (11:00 to 1:00). Offers due Before Noon on Wednesday Dec. 4th.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,097 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,154 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,097
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$179
• After-tax cash flow: $3,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+123.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $190,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records
• 2020-01-29 Sold (MLS) $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-12-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-11-22 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,097 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.