92 Swan Dr · Jackson, TN 38301

$169,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1954 10,200 sqft lot Est $184k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering 1304 square feet of comfortable living space with a warm and inviting feel throughout. Outside you will find a fenced backyard perfect for pets or outdoor enjoyment along with a storage shed that adds extra convenience and space for tools or hobbies. With its classic appeal and functional design this home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for space and value in a comfortable setting.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Fenced backyard
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Rear porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry area with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,833/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1701% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $169k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
92 Swan Dr	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,304 (0%)	0mo	$169,000	$130	98
21 Waverly Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,316 (+1%)	10mo	$185,000	$141	69
76 Lynwood Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,354 (+4%)	16mo	$168,900	$125	68
106 Mason St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-3%)	7mo	$70,000	$56	65
570 Westmoreland Pl	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (+0%)	11mo	$194,000	$149	61
431 Arlington Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (-0%)	2mo	$182,500	$141	60
952 W Forest Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (-7%)	11mo	$179,000	$147	56
915 Burkett St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,271 (-2%)	10mo	$189,900	$149	55
875 Skyline Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-5%)	4mo	$255,000	$206	54
470 Russell Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (+1%)	11mo	$178,000	$135	51
832 Lambuth Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+4%)	9mo	$225,000	$167	49
99 Montclair Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	11mo	$184,900	$128	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,459
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $57,098
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38301

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $664/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Jackson Walk Plz Jackson, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1082	$2,600	$2.40	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2008-10-03
   soldstatus $77,800
4. 2000-06-13
   soldstatus $64,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 80.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$664
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $2,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$621
• After-tax cash flow: $4,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, TN
• County: Madison County · 87,024 people
• City population: 87,024
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,536
• Household income: $43,227
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.26%
• Current HPI: 162.2273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+162.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $169,000 CWTAR
• 2008-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,800 Public Records
• 2000-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $64,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $664 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.