117 Camellia St · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$239,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1954 0.36 ac lot $125/sqft · 9% below area Est $263k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this roomy 5 bedroom, 2 bath home with tons of space inside and out! The oversized fully fenced backyard is perfect for BBQs, kids, pets, or just enjoying some peace and quiet. There’s plenty of room to spread out with a comfortable layout, spacious bedrooms, and a cozy feel throughout the home. The covered back deck is a great spot to relax with your morning coffee or hang out with friends and family. With a large driveway and a huge yard, this property has all the space you’ve been looking for!

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Large driveway
• Covered back deck

Tags

• COVERED BACK DECK
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• HUGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1954; Pier/pillar/post foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding; Vinyl siding; Built in 1954; Composition roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first level (approximately 7'9" x 13'7"); Living room on first level (approximately 15'7" x 18'4")
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (gas)
• Interior features: Washer hookup and gas dryer hookup; Gas oven, Gas range; Vinyl floors; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-321/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elisabet Ney Pre-Kindergarten Campus (213 students, 75% FRL); Rasco Middle (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $240k implies a 702% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,126 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,306
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -8.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 Magnolia St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (-4%)	0mo	$225,000	$123	77
53 Camellia Ct	0.09mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,896 (-1%)	19mo	$148,000	$78	69
122 Blossom St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,886 (-2%)	3mo	$269,900	$143	64
501 Elm St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,722 (-10%)	1mo	$267,000	$155	55
205 Narcissus St	0.59mi	5/2.5	2,061 (+7%)	6mo	$175,000	$85	53
104 Palm Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,006 (+4%)	16mo	$230,000	$115	46
430 Center Way St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (-11%)	11mo	$230,000	$135	45
107 Wedgewood St	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,068 (+8%)	13mo	$400,000	$193	44
62 Raintree Ct	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,139 (+11%)	2mo	$339,900	$159	41
104 Buttercup St	0.73mi	5/2.0	2,129 (+11%)	9mo	$529,500	$249	40
409 Jasmine St	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	14mo	$219,500	$130	36
115 Driftwood Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,199 (+14%)	22mo	$309,000	$141	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,977
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-67,812
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,082/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,255

Max offer price $235,177

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $41	+0% $-27	+5% $-95	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-114	+0% $-27	+5% $61	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $34	base $-27	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $239,900 Active 523-char remark
16. 1989-06-01
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,082 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,082 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$5,082
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+702.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,082 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.