9838 Camay Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$167,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,935 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1965 6,899 sqft lot Est $207k · 19% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN THE WELL-MAINTAINED TIDWELL TIMBERS SUBDIVSION, JUST MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN HOUSTON AND MEDICAL CENTER. HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO TIDWELL PARK. HOME IS BEING SOLD AS IS AND WILL BE IDEAL FOR PERSONAL CUSTOMIZATION TO MAKE IT YOUR OWN!

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 91 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,869/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,970 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,045
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9811 Degas Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (-7%)	2mo	$260,000	$144	73
9830 Allwood St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,863 (-4%)	14mo	$180,000	$97	68
5709 Senior St	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (+1%)	8mo	$115,000	$59	64
9940 Allwood St	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,854 (-4%)	23mo	$220,000	$119	54
8910 Compton St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,820 (-6%)	10mo	$195,000	$107	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $82,920
• Equity at exit: $134,314

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $223,911
• Equity at exit: $274,038

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,637

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $231	+0% $184	+5% $137	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $110	+0% $184	+5% $258	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $226	base $184	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	45d	1	0.49mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,675	$1.04	0d	1	0.58mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	0.59mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.64mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	0.64mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	45d	1	0.65mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	45d	1	0.65mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.65mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	9d	1	0.65mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	0.67mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	15d	1	0.86mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.95mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.95mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	1.04mi
8508 Wileyvale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	1.13mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	26d	1	1.22mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	1.37mi
7805 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$1,800	$0.92	0d	1	1.41mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-22
   price $167,000
4. 2025-11-20
   listed $185,000 Active
5. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,170 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,170 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$90
• After-tax cash flow: $2,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,170 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.