583 SE Ponderosa Dr · Madras, OR 97741

$319,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · Other public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2006 7,405 sqft lot $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Two-car garage

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO-CAR GARAGE
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madras Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #377 of 412 statewide, top 93%, 363 students, 94% FRL); Jefferson County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 66%, 473 students, 94% FRL); Madras High School (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #114 of 143 statewide, top 80%, 781 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $320k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,757 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.74%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $156,398
• Equity at exit: $288,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $474,413
• Equity at exit: $621,495

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97741

• Home prices YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,552/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,601

Max offer price $270,623

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-98	-5% $-188	+0% $-279	+5% $-369	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-368	+0% $-279	+5% $-190	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-198	base $-279	+0.5pp $-362	+1.0pp $-446

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
652 NE McCampbell St Madras, OR	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,550	$1.52	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

2. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

3. 2026-04-30
   price $319,900 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

4. 2026-04-30
   price $319,900 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

5. 2026-04-24
   price $324,900 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

6. 2026-02-24
   listed $329,900 Active 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

7. 2026-02-22
   listed $329,900 Active 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Recently painted inside and out with a new hot water heater, toilets, all-new flooring, new base trim, and professionally cleaned, this home is truly move-in ready. Located in The Pines, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,916 sq ft of comfortable living space right in town. Built in 2006, it features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, generous living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and a fully fenced backyard with room for pets, play, gardening, or summer gatherings. Close to schools, parks, and local amenities, this home offers both space and convenience. A spacious, move-in-ready 4-bedroom home you won't want to miss!

8. 2015-09-18
   soldstatus $119,000 Sold
9. 2015-09-18
   soldstatus $119,100
10. 2015-08-24
    status Pending
11. 2015-07-30
    price $119,500
12. 2015-06-12
    listed $129,500 Active
13. 2014-10-30
    historical
14. 2014-07-28
    listed $134,000
15. 2006-03-06
    soldstatus $168,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,103 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$2,552
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$9,093
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County SD 509J
• NCES district ID: 4106740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,663
• Composite: 20.9/100
• National rank: #8488
• State rank: #55 of 58 in OR

Livability — Madras

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #11012

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madras, OR
• County: Jefferson County · 13,663 people
• City population: 13,663
• Metro: The Dalles, OR
• Population (ZIP): 13,663
• Household income: $70,983
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 466.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.68%
• Current HPI: 590.9612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Dalles, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+89.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $319,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $319,900 MLSCO
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $324,900 MLSCO
• 2026-02-24 Listed $329,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $329,900 MLSCO
• 2015-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $119,100 Public Records
• 2015-09-18 Sold (MLS) $119,000 MLSCO
• 2015-08-24 Pending — MLSCO
• 2015-07-30 Price Changed $119,500 MLSCO
• 2015-06-12 Listed $129,500 MLSCO
• 2014-10-30 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2014-07-28 Listed $134,000 MLSCO
• 2006-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $168,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,552 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.