20683 Waalew Rd # B189 Unit B189 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1978 1,440 sqft lot Est $90k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Extra Large Mobile Home Property in the Beautiful Community of Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park with a Yard! This home features 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms and a Large Laundry Room with TONS of Storage. Park space covers both Water & Trash as well as many amenities. Community Features: Pool, Spa, Clubhouse, Billiards, Fitness Center, Basketball Courts, Fishing, Playground, Picnic Area, Waterfront Facilities, RV Storage, Tennis Courts and a Serene Environment. Pictures will be updated once all items have been removed from the Property.

Key facts

• 1,440 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot information from assessor's data; Living area and year built from public records; Paved road access; Directions: Corvin Rd to Waalew Rd, enter first entrance to Los Ranchos Park
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,072.79
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, playground, picnic area, and billiard room; Community features: rural setting, biking

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story
• Construction: No certified 433A; No common walls
• Exterior features: Back yard; Association pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; All bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Main-level entry; Main-level bedrooms and bathrooms; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $65k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.21%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20683 Waalew SPC B54 Rd Unit B54	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$130,600	$91	80
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B169	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (+13%)	0mo	$108,000	$71	73
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C44	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	8mo	$95,000	$73	71
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B2	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+11%)	9mo	$65,000	$44	66
20843 WAALEW Rd Unit C48	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	4mo	$135,000	$89	63
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B64	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-15%)	9mo	$60,000	$52	63
20843 Waalew Unit C4	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	2mo	$71,000	$60	62
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C83	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	3mo	$92,000	$61	61
20843 Waalew C57 Unit C57	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	3mo	$68,500	$59	58
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C92	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	5mo	$75,000	$65	55
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C80	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$140,000	$93	55
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C164	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	2mo	$77,000	$67	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $63,006
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.01×
• Total profit: $163,969
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $496

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,117	-5% $1,098	+0% $1,080	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,043
Rent	-10% $933	-5% $1,006	+0% $1,080	+5% $1,154	+10% $1,227
Rate	-1.0pp $1,113	-0.5pp $1,096	base $1,080	+0.5pp $1,063	+1.0pp $1,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21225 Wigwam Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	45d	1	1.02mi
15866 Sago Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	996	$1,750	$1.76	25d	1	1.12mi
15728 Sago Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	25d	1	1.26mi
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 577-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 73.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $12,636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,033
• After-tax cash flow: $9,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+160.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-28 Sold (MLS) $39,000 CRMLS
• 2020-12-28 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-12-15 Listed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2016-12-29 Sold (MLS) $23,500 CRMLS
• 2016-10-07 Listed $25,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $285 · -48.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.