2724 Old Robinson Rd · Waco, TX 76706

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1965 0.27 ac lot Est $216k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-bedroom, 2-bath home with a spacious backyard and great potential. Inside features a comfortable living area, a dining space with a brick fireplace, and a kitchen ready for your personal updates. The large, fenced backyard includes a covered patio and room to enjoy outdoor living. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Bring all offers!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Brick fireplace
• Converted garage

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVERTED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed as active under contract; Exclusions: TVs
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1965; One story
• Construction: Built in 1965
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.27 acre); City water; City sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level layout; Fireplace; Separate living and dining areas; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista El (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,207 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 545 students, 89% FRL, charter).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,607/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,666 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2711 Old Robinson Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+0%)	2mo	$179,000	$132	96
2708 Alta Vista Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	0mo	$199,900	$160	83
3505 Ferndale Dr	0.14mi	3/3.5	1,309 (-3%)	9mo	$185,000	$141	75
2308 Richter Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-3%)	2mo	$184,900	$142	72
3216 Wynmore Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+13%)	4mo	$279,999	$183	64
2213 Autumn Woods Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-3%)	1mo	$249,900	$191	61
3401 Medallion Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+11%)	7mo	$245,000	$164	61
140 Meadowbrook St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,488 (+10%)	2mo	$180,000	$121	55
2305 Joey Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,164 (-14%)	2mo	$180,000	$155	49
3400 Daughtrey Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+7%)	9mo	$254,900	$176	48
132 S Meadowbrook St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,194 (-12%)	0mo	$125,000	$105	46
2208 Jane St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,194 (-12%)	11mo	$238,500	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-50,837
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-69,750
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,302/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,889

Max offer price $175,605

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-162	+0% $-223	+5% $-284	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-286	+0% $-223	+5% $-160	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-168	base $-223	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3430 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	916	$1,150	$1.26	45d	1	0.13mi
3447 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	907	$1,350	$1.49	14d	1	0.14mi
3411 Pewitt Dr #3413 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	22d	1	0.20mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	0.23mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	22d	1	0.23mi
3743 Vista Cove Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,850	$1.23	22d	1	0.25mi
3001 S New Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,645	$1.86	14d	15	0.57mi
3200 Belmont Dr Unit 3228 Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	14d	1	0.69mi
4009 James Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	22d	1	1.06mi
2201 Creekview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,094	$2.12	14d	20	1.19mi
1800 Primrose Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,133	$1.20	14d	33	1.26mi
2500 Marketplace Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,560	$1.69	14d	10	1.42mi
1628 Ewing Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,400	$1.63	14d	1	1.44mi
4900 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,650	$1.61	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-21
   price $215,000
4. 2026-03-07
   price $227,900
5. 2026-02-16
   listed $235,000 Active
6. 2013-03-11
   soldstatus
7. 2004-03-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,302 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$632/yr (+$53/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,302
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $227,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2013-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,302 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.