4109 Appaloosa Dr · Mercedes, TX 78570

$179,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 3,963 sqft lot $163/sqft · 8% below area Est $196k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Meet the charming Kestrel home, where smart design meets everyday comfort. This thoughtfully designed single-story floor plan offers a beautiful layout that feels open, inviting, and easy to live in. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home offers plenty of space for a growing family. Enjoy a bright, open-concept living space that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen features painted maple wood cabinets, sleek quartz countertops, and a 3-Piece GE stainless steel appliance package. Tile flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. Quartz Countertops Maple Wood Painted Cabinets GE 3-Piece

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Tile flooring
• 3,963 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• PAINTED MAPLE WOOD CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $179,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence (Kestrel plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1101
• Exterior features: Address: 4109 Appaloosa Dr, Mercedes, TX 78570

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Kestrel plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,386 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,131
• List price: $179,990
• Delta: -8.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $19,527
• Equity at exit: $96,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $76,333
• Equity at exit: $163,046

Cash invested: $50,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $141,049

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,998
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,990 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,990 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,990 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,990 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,990 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,990 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,990 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,990 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $179,990 Active 799-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,082
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$6,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B