1508 Lakeland Dr · Liberty, TX 77575

$39,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 456 Days on market

Built 1942 0.53 ac lot $36/sqft · 76% below area ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great location with close proximity to HWY 90 and downtown Liberty. Property is distressed but has possibility for a project, fixer upper or flip. The property is a little more than one half acre. No restrictions so this would be a great place for a home, business or FFA projects.

Key facts

• No restrictions
• Great location
• Large building barn

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HWY 90
• LARGE BUILDING BARN
• MORE THAN ONE HALF ACRE
• NO RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.0% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 456 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (67%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 456 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.18%
• DSCR: 6.04
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,489
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -75.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Lakeland Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,186 (+6%)	20mo	$170,000	$143	64
2418 Cos St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,159 (+4%)	10mo	$55,000	$47	57
505 Kentucky St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-3%)	7mo	$175,000	$161	57
2404 Edgewood St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (-3%)	13mo	$139,999	$128	52
1016 Lynnwood Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,265 (+13%)	6mo	$170,000	$134	51
2740 Cos St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,285 (+15%)	8mo	$67,000	$52	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $60,669
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.47×
• Total profit: $139,347
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $1,054

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,081	-5% $1,067	+0% $1,054	+5% $1,040	+10% $1,026
Rent	-10% $921	-5% $987	+0% $1,054	+5% $1,120	+10% $1,187
Rate	-1.0pp $1,074	-0.5pp $1,064	base $1,054	+0.5pp $1,043	+1.0pp $1,033

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 456 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 455 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 454 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 453 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 451 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 450 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 447 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 446 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 445 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 442 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 441 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 440 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 439 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 438 DOM
15. 2026-01-14
    price $59,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This is a great location with close proximity to HWY 90 and downtown Liberty. Property is distressed but has possibility for a project, fixer upper or flip. The property is a little more than one half acre. No restrictions so this would be a great place for a home, business or FFA projects.

16. 2025-10-30
    price $75,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This is a great location with close proximity to HWY 90 and downtown Liberty. Property is distressed but has possibility for a project, fixer upper or flip. The property is a little more than one half acre. No restrictions so this would be a great place for a home, business or FFA projects.

17. 2025-06-09
    price $86,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This is a great location with close proximity to HWY 90 and downtown Liberty. Property is distressed but has possibility for a project, fixer upper or flip. The property is a little more than one half acre. No restrictions so this would be a great place for a home, business or FFA projects.

18. 2025-06-09
    price $99,900 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This is a great location with close proximity to HWY 90 and downtown Liberty. Property is distressed but has possibility for a project, fixer upper or flip. The property is a little more than one half acre. No restrictions so this would be a great place for a home, business or FFA projects.

19. 2025-03-19
    listed $120,000 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This is a great location with close proximity to HWY 90 and downtown Liberty. Property is distressed but has possibility for a project, fixer upper or flip. The property is a little more than one half acre. No restrictions so this would be a great place for a home, business or FFA projects.

20. 2025-03-17
    historical
21. 2024-10-25
    price $120,000
22. 2024-09-23
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2001-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $12,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,065
• After-tax cash flow: $9,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, TX
• City population: 16,617
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-52.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $86,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2001-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,265 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.