616 Ruth Ave · Grenelefe, FL 33844

$250,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $91/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You will love the Frey! This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. Two secondary bedrooms are secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting open-concept floorplan that boasts convenient access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor living. A lavish owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A spacious three-car garage completes the home. Each home comes with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® promise, which includes new appliances as well as quartz countertops, blinds, and more in the price of your home. Groves at Grenelefe is one of the most modern and anticipated ne

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#728 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,891 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-63,983
• Equity at exit: $37,350

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-94,855
• Equity at exit: $21,659

Cash invested: $70,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$313 /mo · $3,757/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $205,048

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-228	+0% $-314	+5% $-401	+10% $-487
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-390	+0% $-314	+5% $-239	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-188	-0.5pp $-250	base $-314	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,625
• Closing costs: $7,515
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Coventry Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,995	$1.63	5d	1	0.41mi
8 Huntley Ct Unit 8 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$1,600	$1.26	25d	1	0.44mi
176 Palm View Ct Unit 3475/6 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,275	$1.14	25d	1	0.92mi
89 Pine Forest Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	5d	1	0.94mi
3318 Camelot Dr #3318 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,075	$0.96	5d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricestatusdays on market $250,499 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-07
   price $259,999
4. 2026-04-03
   price $271,999
5. 2026-03-24
   price $286,999
6. 2026-03-16
   price $281,499
7. 2026-03-11
   listed $276,499 Active
8. 2025-12-18
   soldstatus $1,105,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,032
• − Property taxes: −$3,757
• − Insurance: −$1,252
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$7,287
• Taxable loss: −$8,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,963
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Grenelefe

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #728
• US rank: #15600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grenelefe, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-76.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $259,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $271,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $286,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $281,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $276,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,105,100 Public Records