14961 Lamar Rd · Willis, TX 77378

$149,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2020 6,499 sqft lot $184/sqft · 7% below area Est $160k · 7% under $7/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming single-story home situated on a spacious lot with a long private driveway, offering both space and privacy. This well-maintained property features 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, with durable wood-look tile flooring throughout and a functional, open layout. The home has been freshly painted (April 2026), giving it a clean, updated feel. The kitchen and living areas flow seamlessly for everyday living, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. Step outside to enjoy a large, fully fenced backyard—installed February 2026—perfect for added privacy, pets, and outdoor entertaining. This property combines peaceful surroundings

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Convenience to i-45
• Open layout

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN LAYOUT
• CONVENIENCE TO I-45
• CONVENIENCE TO LAKE CONROE
• CONVENIENCE TO THE WOODLANDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Frontier Lakes POA with an annual fee of $85

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Entry/primary living on first level
• Construction: Built in 2020; Synthetic stucco and wood siding; Shingle and wood roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Porch; Back yard fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 10 x 13; Bedroom (First level) — 11 x 11
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Additional bathroom (First level) — 9 x 5
• Heating & cooling: Heating present: wall furnace and window unit; Cooling present: window unit(s)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Tub/shower; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First level) — 8 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($969/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 720 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,414 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,474
• List price: $149,990
• Delta: -6.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15149 Austin Rd	0.23mi	3/2.5 (+1)	800 (-2%)	3mo	$159,000	$199	73
14862 Burnett Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0	725 (-11%)	22mo	$149,900	$207	61
4089 Ben Milam	0.10mi	2/1.5	896 (+10%)	21mo	$167,800	$187	60
15229 Travis Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+10%)	8mo	$150,000	$167	59
4568 Ben Milam Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0	725 (-11%)	16mo	$146,900	$203	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,929
• Equity at exit: $22,364

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-23,372
• Equity at exit: $12,968

Cash invested: $41,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,975/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $149,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $123	+0% $81	+5% $38	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $26	+0% $81	+5% $136	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $119	base $81	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,498
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,990 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,990 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,990 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $149,990 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $160,000 Active 928-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,975 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,975
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,363
• Taxable loss: −$1,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$365
• After-tax cash flow: $1,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $149,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $160,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,975 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.