828 E 31st St · Erie, PA 16504

$145,541

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,928 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1921 4,421 sqft lot Est $146k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY W/ LARGE 1ST FLOOR UNIT VACANT, READY FOR YOU & HAPPY 2ND FLOOR TENANT! EACH UNIT HAS KITCHEN, DINING RM, LIVING RM & 2 BEDROOMS W/ FULL BATH. 1ST FLOOR HAS HUGE LIVING & SECOND FLOOR HAS LIVING RM & SUN RM. WELL CARED FOR PROPERTY HAS 2 FURNACES & CENTRAL AIR UNITS. FULL ATTIC ACCESS FOR 2ND FLOOR & FULL BASEMENT FOR BOTH UNITS. THIS SPACIOUS TWO UNIT ALSO HAS A LARGE SIDE/BACK YARDS & PLENTY OF PARKING. 1ST FLOOR HAS NEW FLOORING READY FOR YOU OR YOUR NEW TENANT!

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Laundry hookups
• 4,421 sq ft lot

Tags

• OFF STREET PARKING
• LAUNDRY HOOKUPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln El Sch (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,295 of 1,518 statewide, top 86%, 370 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Ms (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #489 of 512 statewide, top 96%, 756 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $146k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,541

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.57%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 E 31st St	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,928 (0%)	0mo	$145,000	$50	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,018
• Equity at exit: $21,701

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $47,941
• Equity at exit: $12,584

Cash invested: $40,751 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$763
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $145,541

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $577	-5% $536	+0% $495	+5% $453	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $414	+0% $495	+5% $575	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $568	-0.5pp $532	base $495	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $419

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,032
Total (2 units)			$2,033

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,385
• Closing costs: $4,366
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $145,541 Active
3. 2020-11-16
   soldstatus $93,000
4. 2020-11-13
   soldstatus $93,000 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY W/ LARGE 1ST FLOOR UNIT VACANT, READY FOR YOU & HAPPY 2ND FLOOR TENANT! EACH UNIT HAS KITCHEN, DINING RM, LIVING RM & 2 BEDROOMS W/ FULL BATH. 1ST FLOOR HAS HUGE LIVING & SECOND FLOOR HAS LIVING RM & SUN RM. WELL CARED FOR PROPERTY HAS 2 FURNACES & CENTRAL AIR UNITS. FULL ATTIC ACCESS FOR 2ND FLOOR & FULL BASEMENT FOR BOTH UNITS. THIS SPACIOUS TWO UNIT ALSO HAS A LARGE SIDE/BACK YARDS & PLENTY OF PARKING. 1ST FLOOR HAS NEW FLOORING READY FOR YOU OR YOUR NEW TENANT!

5. 2020-09-10
   listed $89,900 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   GREAT OWNER OCCUPIED OPPORTUNITY W/ LARGE 1ST FLOOR UNIT VACANT, READY FOR YOU & HAPPY 2ND FLOOR TENANT! EACH UNIT HAS KITCHEN, DINING RM, LIVING RM & 2 BEDROOMS W/ FULL BATH. 1ST FLOOR HAS HUGE LIVING & SECOND FLOOR HAS LIVING RM & SUN RM. WELL CARED FOR PROPERTY HAS 2 FURNACES & CENTRAL AIR UNITS. FULL ATTIC ACCESS FOR 2ND FLOOR & FULL BASEMENT FOR BOTH UNITS. THIS SPACIOUS TWO UNIT ALSO HAS A LARGE SIDE/BACK YARDS & PLENTY OF PARKING. 1ST FLOOR HAS NEW FLOORING READY FOR YOU OR YOUR NEW TENANT!

6. 2009-08-06
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,450 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,450 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,153
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$4,234
• Taxable income: $3,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$943
• After-tax cash flow: $4,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+94.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $145,541 GEBOR
• 2020-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) $93,000 GEBOR
• 2020-09-10 Listed $89,900 GEBOR
• 2009-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,450 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.