The Olympic Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$306,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,055 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Turn the kids loose in the Olympic's second-story loft space while hosting downstairs in the open concept living area. The private main level primary suite features dual sinks and walk-in closet for ample storage.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Walk in closet
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SECOND STORY LOFT SPACE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• DUAL SINKS
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $306,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Inventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2055; Address: Josephine, TX 75173

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: The Olympic (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $306,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $309,411.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,877 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,411
• List price: $306,990
• Delta: -0.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Concord Ct	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+2%)	2mo	$297,990	$142	76
306 Timber Ridge Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+5%)	2mo	$419,900	$194	67
819 Lexington	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+2%)	10mo	$273,990	$131	64
312 Timber Ridge Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,350 (+14%)	2mo	$399,900	$170	52
601 Savanna Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,156 (+5%)	12mo	$310,000	$144	47
900 Lexington Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,827 (-11%)	17mo	$254,990	$140	42
610 Savanna Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-15%)	15mo	$272,500	$155	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $145,005
• Equity at exit: $278,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $445,595
• Equity at exit: $601,117

Cash invested: $86,635 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,623
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,641/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,707

Max offer price $255,923

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,353
• Closing costs: $9,282
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	0.95mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	1.02mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	1.10mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	1.28mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	1.28mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	43d	1	1.31mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	1.35mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,990 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $306,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $306,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $306,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $306,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $306,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $306,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $306,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $306,990 Active 213-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,332
• − Property taxes: −$4,641
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − Depreciation: −$9,001
• Taxable loss: −$9,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,389
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B