1924 Aves Glen Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$219,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $175/sqft · 9% below area Est $241k · 9% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this nearly new, barely lived-in 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Forney’s desirable Falcon Heights community, featuring a modern split-level design that provides excellent separation of space while keeping the main living areas open and inviting. The stylish kitchen offers gas cooking, sleek finishes, and a spacious island that flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Built just one year ago, this home offers the benefits of new construction without the wait, along with energy-efficient systems and contemporary features throughout. Located in a growing, family-friendly neighborhood, residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, clubhouse, sidewalks, and green spaces, all within the highly regarded Forney ISD. With nearby shopping, dining, and easy access to major routes, this home blends comfort, convenience, and modern living in one exceptional package. Come experience this beautiful home for yourself—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Gas cooking
• Community amenities

Tags

• MODERN SPLIT-LEVEL DESIGN
• GAS COOKING
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT SYSTEMS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $192,245 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,315
• List price: $219,990
• Delta: -8.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1429 Dovekie Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	2mo	$238,999	$182	86
1217 Falcon Heights Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	7mo	$222,499	$170	81
1209 Falcon Heights Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	8mo	$228,849	$175	80
1233 Canyon Wren Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	2mo	$226,924	$173	78
1722 Crossbill St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	5mo	$224,999	$172	78
1221 Canyon Wren Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	2mo	$242,049	$185	76
1225 Canyon Wren Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	3mo	$236,999	$181	76
1217 Canyon Wren Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+4%)	2mo	$238,499	$182	76
1603 Sparrow Hawk Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+3%)	4mo	$239,449	$184	74
1424 Merlin Bluff St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+3%)	7mo	$231,374	$178	74
1811 Ibis Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	8mo	$235,000	$163	63
1338 Canyon Wren Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	7mo	$240,000	$167	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-48,733
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-67,548
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,420/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $192,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-95	+0% $-157	+5% $-219	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-240	+0% $-157	+5% $-74	+10% $9
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-101	base $-157	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1631 Rosy Finch Dr Heath, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,600	$1.56	18d	1	0.06mi
1625 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,095	$1.26	45d	1	0.08mi
1622 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,195	$1.32	45d	1	0.09mi
1947 Aves Glen Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,195	$1.56	26d	1	0.10mi
2330 Aspen Hill Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,795	$1.20	20d	1	0.11mi
1429 Dovekie Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,500	$1.91	3d	1	0.13mi
2111 River Pine Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,950	$1.30	45d	1	0.14mi
1728 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	20d	1	0.16mi
1729 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.16mi
2003 Pine Stone Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	0.16mi
1355 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,200	$1.51	45d	1	0.19mi
1158 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,200	$1.24	0d	1	0.19mi
1318 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,699	$1.20	23d	1	0.20mi
1727 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,750	$1.33	20d	1	0.20mi
1725 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.21mi
1723 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	0.22mi
1719 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,795	$1.22	23d	1	0.23mi
1720 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	0.23mi
1147 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,200	$1.45	0d	1	0.24mi
1718 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,730	$1.32	23d	1	0.24mi
1715 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.25mi
1716 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.25mi
1650 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,995	$1.28	26d	1	0.26mi
1708 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,840	$1.05	17d	1	0.28mi
1231 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.29mi
1229 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	0.29mi
1419 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,900	$1.31	14d	1	0.30mi
1227 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	0.30mi
1228 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.31mi
1405 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	8d	1	0.31mi
1223 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.31mi
1426 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.32mi
1222 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,775	$1.36	45d	1	0.32mi
1220 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,815	$1.06	9d	1	0.33mi
1621 Sparrow Hawk Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.35mi
1611 Sparrow Hawk Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.36mi
1211 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,400	$1.45	23d	1	0.36mi
1289 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.41mi
1285 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.42mi
1281 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,805	$1.19	14d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,990 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,990 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,990 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,990 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,990 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,990 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $219,990 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,990 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $229,990 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Discover this nearly new, barely lived-in 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Forney’s desirable Falcon Heights community, featuring a modern split-level design that provides excellent separation of space while keeping the main living areas open and inviting. The stylish kitchen offers gas cooking, sleek finishes, and a spacious island that flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Built just one year ago, this home offers the benefits of new construction without the wait, along with energy-efficient systems and contemporary features throughout. Located in a growing, family-friendly neighborhood, residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, clubhouse, sidewalks, and green spaces, all within the highly regarded Forney ISD. With nearby shopping, dining, and easy access to major routes, this home blends comfort, convenience, and modern living in one exceptional package. Come experience this beautiful home for yourself—schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-04-08
    listed $299,990 Active 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Discover this nearly new, barely lived-in 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Forney’s desirable Falcon Heights community, featuring a modern split-level design that provides excellent separation of space while keeping the main living areas open and inviting. The stylish kitchen offers gas cooking, sleek finishes, and a spacious island that flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Built just one year ago, this home offers the benefits of new construction without the wait, along with energy-efficient systems and contemporary features throughout. Located in a growing, family-friendly neighborhood, residents enjoy access to community amenities such as a pool, playground, clubhouse, sidewalks, and green spaces, all within the highly regarded Forney ISD. With nearby shopping, dining, and easy access to major routes, this home blends comfort, convenience, and modern living in one exceptional package. Come experience this beautiful home for yourself—schedule your tour today!

18. 2026-03-31
    historical
19. 2026-03-29
    status Active
20. 2026-01-06
    price $234,990
21. 2025-12-10
    price $239,990
22. 2025-11-17
    listed $249,990 Active
23. 2025-06-08
    historical $1,950
24. 2025-05-18
    listed $1,950
25. 2025-05-17
    listed $268,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,420 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,420 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$6,420
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This nearly new, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Forney's Falcon Heights community is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It offers modern features and a split-level design, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal for both resale and rental.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Additional storage can be beneficial for both resale and rental purposes.
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Additional storage can be beneficial for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $229,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $299,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $234,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $239,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $249,990 NTREIS
• 2025-06-08 Rental Removed $1,950 NTREIS
• 2025-05-18 Listed for Rent $1,950 NTREIS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $268,999 NTREIS