15841 St Johns Church Rd · Laurel Hill, NC 28343

$112,300

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2003 2.05 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2003, this manufactured home offers approximately 2052 finished square feet, four bedrooms and two full baths, fireplace and sits on an approximate 89342 sqft lot. Seller WILL NOT ACTIVATE UTILITIES. Buyer to view home, inspect and confirm all listing information prior to making offer. Seller will NOT allow water service to be turned on for any reason. Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies. Buyer to check with City/County/Zoning/Tax and other records to determine details to their satisfaction.

Key facts

• 2.05 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed as an auction
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no main level garage)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured doublewide single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Aluminum and vinyl exterior materials; Other (roof details in remarks); Permanent foundation; Built as one story
• Exterior features: Dirt and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace; Eight total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#256 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($776 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,931 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $22,879
• Equity at exit: $43,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $67,712
• Equity at exit: $62,475

Cash invested: $31,444 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28343

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$589
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $112,300

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,075
• Closing costs: $3,369
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,300 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,300 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,300 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $112,300 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $122,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $122,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $122,000 Active
19. 2025-12-03
    price $132,000
20. 2025-10-07
    price $146,500
21. 2025-09-04
    listed $162,750 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,291
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$3,267
• Taxable income: $1,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$294
• After-tax cash flow: $2,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scotland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,203
• Composite: 20.66/100
• National rank: #8536
• State rank: #160 of 178 in NC

Livability — Laurel Hill

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #11216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,795

Population outlook (Scotland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,331 people
• By 2030: 32,017 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 29,290 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 26,554 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 19,857 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 13,851 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 33% Native American 15% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Welsh 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.9) · D 46.2% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -6.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.9 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+7.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Current HPI: 133.9663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $122,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $132,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $146,500 LPRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $162,750 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.