9746 Newton Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$169,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1957 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home that has been meticulously redone 2 beds 1 bath on the main level hardwood floors thru out. New bath , kitchen with a sunroom. Dining room along with living room that has recessed lighting. Fresh kitchen for those wonderful meals. Basement bath has a new shower, vanity and lighting. . Rec area has new flooring, lighting and paint. Third bedroom has an egress window. . Again you will not be disappointed, added bonus roof, hvac and hotwater tank all less than two years old.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-498/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 8.9% in Ferguson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 274 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $170k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,946 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Gage Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-3%)	1mo	$68,000	$78	75
9871 Medford Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	950 (+6%)	2mo	$124,900	$131	72
1719 Newhall Ct	0.37mi	3/1.0	975 (+8%)	0mo	$120,000	$123	67
9828 Lorna Ln	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-12%)	2mo	$65,000	$82	60
9866 Dennis Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+15%)	3mo	$124,900	$121	58
10020 Dellridge Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-9%)	2mo	$49,900	$61	58
10038 Balboa Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	864 (-4%)	2mo	$49,900	$58	55
277 Dashwood Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	2mo	$74,900	$78	50
9739 Balboa Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	999 (+11%)	1mo	$76,900	$77	50
9606 Lifford Ct	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-11%)	1mo	$130,000	$163	50
1829 Chambers Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-9%)	2mo	$34,900	$43	49
9614 Winkler Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+13%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $27,552
• Equity at exit: $83,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $97,304
• Equity at exit: $135,543

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $162,172

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $6	+0% $-41	+5% $-89	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-93	+0% $-41	+5% $10	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $2	base $-41	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	0.14mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	45d	1	0.18mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	0.18mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	45d	1	0.19mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	0.20mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	0.23mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	0.27mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	0.29mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.30mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	45d	1	0.33mi
2974 Coppercreek Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$895	$1.27	0d	6	0.45mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	25d	1	0.52mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	45d	1	0.59mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	25d	1	0.61mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	25d	1	0.63mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	45d	1	0.64mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	0d	1	0.64mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	9d	1	0.64mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	16d	1	0.71mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	0.73mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	25d	1	0.85mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.87mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	16d	1	0.88mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	9d	1	0.88mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	4d	1	0.88mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	25d	1	0.95mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	45d	1	0.95mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	45d	1	0.95mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	0d	1	0.98mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	25d	1	0.98mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	45d	1	0.98mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	45d	1	0.99mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	0d	1	0.99mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.02mi
35 S Barat Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	0d	1	1.03mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	25d	1	1.04mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	19d	1	1.04mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	1.06mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	25d	1	1.09mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-25
   listed $169,500 Active
3. 2025-12-17
   historical $169,500
4. 1995-06-01
   soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$3,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$835
• After-tax cash flow: $337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+219.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-25 Listed $169,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Coming Soon $169,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,303 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.