10838 Sapphire Breeze Cv · Ruskin, FL 34219

$385,390

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Land · 141 Days on market

Built 2026 8,384 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Expansive clubhouse
• Resort-style pool
• Nature trails

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• EXPANSIVE CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• NATURE TRAILS
• PARK AND PLAYGROUND AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Direction faces: Southwest
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $3,261; Monthly HOA amount: $71.42; Total monthly fees shown: $71.42; Total annual fees shown: $857.04; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by FirstService Residential (monthly fee $71.42); Association approval required; Deed restrictions; Community pool; Fitness center; Park; Sidewalks; Golf carts permitted; Pets allowed; Irrigation with reclaimed water

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Attached garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler using reclaimed water; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion 2026-03-27); Southwest facing; Builder model: Hanover
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction builder: Pulte Home Company, LLC (license CBC1262018)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Pool (other); Landscaped grounds; Oversized lot; Sidewalks; Paved/asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; In-wall pest/ Pest guard system; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $304,866 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-83,651
• Equity at exit: $57,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-123,144
• Equity at exit: $33,321

Cash invested: $107,909 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,021
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,183/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,293

Max offer price $351,345

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-84	+0% $-193	+5% $-302	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-313	+0% $-193	+5% $-72	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-95	base $-193	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,348
• Closing costs: $11,562
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	0.03mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	24d	1	0.40mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	15d	1	0.46mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	0.47mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	24d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $385,390
2. 2026-05-16
   price $385,390 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

3. 2026-03-13
   price $381,390 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

4. 2026-03-11
   price $381,890

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

5. 2026-03-11
   price $378,890 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

6. 2026-03-06
   price $378,890
7. 2026-02-28
   price $383,890 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

8. 2026-01-07
   listed $382,990 Active
9. 2026-01-06
   price $382,990 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

10. 2025-11-24
    price $381,990 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

11. 2025-11-15
    listed $394,990 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    The Hanover offers a modern single-story design with 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept living area. Its covered lanai faces peaceful conservation views, adding privacy and a natural backdrop ideal for family living and entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,183 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,183 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,588
• − Property taxes: −$4,183
• − Insurance: −$1,927
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,927
• − Management: −$2,927
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$11,211
• Taxable loss: −$9,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,167
• After-tax cash flow: $-145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $385,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $385,390 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $381,390 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $381,890 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $378,890 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $378,890 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $383,890 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Listed $382,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $382,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $381,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-15 Listed $394,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+49.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,183 · +49.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.