15412 Exter Mill Rd · Matoaca, VA 23838

$345,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1973 0.69 ac lot $225/sqft · at area comps Est $358k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home where space, style, and comfort come together effortlessly. At the center of the home, an exceptionally spacious kitchen creates the perfect gathering place for cooking, entertaining, and everyday living. Fresh updates and thoughtful finishes bring a bright, polished feel throughout. Step outside and enjoy the stunning partially covered back deck, an ideal setting for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or lively gatherings with family and friends. The property also features an impressive oversized garage, offering incredible flexibility for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Situated on over half an acre, this property offers the rare luxury of space and privacy while still maintaining convenience. Homes that combine recent renovation, generous outdoor living, and versatile spaces like this are a rare find. Move-in ready and designed for living well!! This is the one buyers have been waiting for.

Key facts

• Over half an acre
• Renovated home
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PARTIALLY COVERED BACK DECK
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• OVER HALF AN ACRE
• GENEROUS OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Matoaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $345k implies a 930% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,054
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -3.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15619 Devlin Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+6%)	4mo	$389,000	$239	55
14917 Northwood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-12%)	20mo	$351,000	$260	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-22,016
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $24,208
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23838

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,363/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,721

Max offer price $345,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $729	-5% $631	+0% $534	+5% $436	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $399	+0% $534	+5% $668	+10% $802
Rate	-1.0pp $707	-0.5pp $621	base $534	+0.5pp $444	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $345,000 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $345,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    price $345,000 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to a beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home where space, style, and comfort come together effortlessly. At the center of the home, an exceptionally spacious kitchen creates the perfect gathering place for cooking, entertaining, and everyday living. Fresh updates and thoughtful finishes bring a bright, polished feel throughout. Step outside and enjoy the stunning partially covered back deck, an ideal setting for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or lively gatherings with family and friends. The property also features an impressive oversized garage, offering incredible flexibility for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Situated on over half an acre, this property offers the rare luxury of space and privacy while still maintaining convenience. Homes that combine recent renovation, generous outdoor living, and versatile spaces like this are a rare find. Move-in ready and designed for living well!! This is the one buyers have been waiting for.

14. 2026-04-30
    price $354,999 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to a beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home where space, style, and comfort come together effortlessly. At the center of the home, an exceptionally spacious kitchen creates the perfect gathering place for cooking, entertaining, and everyday living. Fresh updates and thoughtful finishes bring a bright, polished feel throughout. Step outside and enjoy the stunning partially covered back deck, an ideal setting for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or lively gatherings with family and friends. The property also features an impressive oversized garage, offering incredible flexibility for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Situated on over half an acre, this property offers the rare luxury of space and privacy while still maintaining convenience. Homes that combine recent renovation, generous outdoor living, and versatile spaces like this are a rare find. Move-in ready and designed for living well!! This is the one buyers have been waiting for.

15. 2026-04-20
    price $360,000 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to a beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home where space, style, and comfort come together effortlessly. At the center of the home, an exceptionally spacious kitchen creates the perfect gathering place for cooking, entertaining, and everyday living. Fresh updates and thoughtful finishes bring a bright, polished feel throughout. Step outside and enjoy the stunning partially covered back deck, an ideal setting for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or lively gatherings with family and friends. The property also features an impressive oversized garage, offering incredible flexibility for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Situated on over half an acre, this property offers the rare luxury of space and privacy while still maintaining convenience. Homes that combine recent renovation, generous outdoor living, and versatile spaces like this are a rare find. Move-in ready and designed for living well!! This is the one buyers have been waiting for.

16. 2026-03-28
    price $363,500 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to a beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home where space, style, and comfort come together effortlessly. At the center of the home, an exceptionally spacious kitchen creates the perfect gathering place for cooking, entertaining, and everyday living. Fresh updates and thoughtful finishes bring a bright, polished feel throughout. Step outside and enjoy the stunning partially covered back deck, an ideal setting for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or lively gatherings with family and friends. The property also features an impressive oversized garage, offering incredible flexibility for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Situated on over half an acre, this property offers the rare luxury of space and privacy while still maintaining convenience. Homes that combine recent renovation, generous outdoor living, and versatile spaces like this are a rare find. Move-in ready and designed for living well!! This is the one buyers have been waiting for.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $365,500 Active 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Welcome to a beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home where space, style, and comfort come together effortlessly. At the center of the home, an exceptionally spacious kitchen creates the perfect gathering place for cooking, entertaining, and everyday living. Fresh updates and thoughtful finishes bring a bright, polished feel throughout. Step outside and enjoy the stunning partially covered back deck, an ideal setting for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or lively gatherings with family and friends. The property also features an impressive oversized garage, offering incredible flexibility for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Situated on over half an acre, this property offers the rare luxury of space and privacy while still maintaining convenience. Homes that combine recent renovation, generous outdoor living, and versatile spaces like this are a rare find. Move-in ready and designed for living well!! This is the one buyers have been waiting for.

18. 1977-05-26
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,829 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$2,363
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,261
• − Management: −$3,261
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable income: $789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $6,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,213

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.94%
• Current HPI: 257.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+929.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $345,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $354,999 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $360,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $363,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $365,500 CVRMLS
• 1977-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,363 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.