1500 Held #10 · Modesto, CA 95355

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 228 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $121k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large Reduction!!Welcome home to this lovely refreshed and move in ready mobile home located in a desirable park 55 yrs of age or older. This home sits on a corner lot with over 1500 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, tis 2 bedroom 2 bath home has been updated inside & out. This lot offers areas for gardening to enjoyable time on the covered patio. This home has a newer HVAC system!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Areas for gardening
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• AREAS FOR GARDENING
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 1500 Held #10, Modesto, CA 95355; Cross street: Briggsmore
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide; Built in 1988; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Wood skirting; Manufactured home (Country House make)
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Corner lot; Irregular-shaped lot; Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: No special kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living area; Formal dining room; Laundry located inside
• Laundry & utility: 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.62%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 Held Dr #84	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+1%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	95
1500 Held	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+1%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	91
1500 Held Dr #5	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,507 (-0%)	11mo	$129,000	$86	86
1500 Held Dr #119	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$87,000	$60	81
1528 Playground Way #125	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+5%)	6mo	$110,000	$69	77
1500 Held #99	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	6mo	$107,000	$80	76
1428 Playground Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	70
4325 Raiders Way	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	6mo	$145,000	$86	68
1500 Held Dr #81	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (-12%)	8mo	$50,000	$38	63
1500 Held Dr #7	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	11mo	$80,000	$60	63
1509 Playground	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+11%)	10mo	$170,000	$101	63
1544 Playground Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	9mo	$140,000	$104	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $62,112
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $145,108
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,401	-5% $1,363	+0% $1,325	+5% $1,287	+10% $1,249
Rent	-10% $1,116	-5% $1,221	+0% $1,325	+5% $1,429	+10% $1,533
Rate	-1.0pp $1,380	-0.5pp $1,353	base $1,325	+0.5pp $1,296	+1.0pp $1,267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4709 Via Giardiano Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	2038	$3,200	$1.57	22d	1	0.20mi
1108 Cedar Creek Dr #1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,999	$1.88	15d	1	0.82mi
3925 Lookout Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	3.0	1952	$2,700	$1.38	15d	1	1.05mi
757 Waddell Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,700	$1.54	15d	1	1.19mi
1217 Kara Ln Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,395	$1.54	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 206 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $15,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,610
• After-tax cash flow: $12,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B