202 Cress Creek Trl · Poplar Grove, IL 61065

$381,125

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Other public records · 311 Days on market

Built 2025 9,583 sqft lot $218/sqft · 8% above area Est $351k · 9% over $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Genesis presents that sought after open concept. This one is seriously wide open, the cook will never feel left out while prepping. Beautiful finishes complete this home, easy care vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops and birch cabinets. If more space is what you are after, head downstairs to the basement- your blank canvas. The Trails of Dawson Creek is a growing community offering affordable new construction. Stop by today

Key facts

• Open concept
• Basement
• Birch cabinets

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BIRCH CABINETS
• BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $381k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $381k).
• Recommended offer: $335k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#598 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• North Boone CUSD 200 (rural): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #440 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Poplar Grove Elem School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #940 of 2,056 statewide, top 49%, 238 students, 0% FRL); North Boone Middle School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #425 of 665 statewide, top 65%, 242 students, 0% FRL); North Boone High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 517 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 35% district-wide (35 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Boone County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $107k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $335,390 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.12%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,929
• List price: $381,125
• Delta: 8.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $119,225
• Equity at exit: $176,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $322,787
• Equity at exit: $275,503

Cash invested: $106,715 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61065

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,999
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$476 /mo · $5,717/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$994
• Net cashflow: $1,078

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,371

Max offer price $381,125

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,341	-5% $1,209	+0% $1,078	+5% $946	+10% $814
Rent	-10% $703	-5% $890	+0% $1,078	+5% $1,265	+10% $1,452
Rate	-1.0pp $1,269	-0.5pp $1,174	base $1,078	+0.5pp $979	+1.0pp $878

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,281
• Closing costs: $11,434
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $381,125 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $381,125 Active 310 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $381,125 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $381,125 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $381,125 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $381,125 Active 305 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $381,125 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $381,125 Active 302 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $381,125 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $381,125 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $381,125 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $381,125 Active 294 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $381,125 Active 293 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $381,125 Active 292 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $381,125 Active 291 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $381,125 Active 290 DOM
17. 2025-08-14
    listed $381,125 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    The Genesis presents that sought after open concept. This one is seriously wide open, the cook will never feel left out while prepping. Beautiful finishes complete this home, easy care vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops and birch cabinets. If more space is what you are after, head downstairs to the basement- your blank canvas. The Trails of Dawson Creek is a growing community offering affordable new construction. Stop by today

18. 2025-08-13
    listed $381,125 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    The Genesis presents that sought after open concept. This one is seriously wide open, the cook will never feel left out while prepping. Beautiful finishes complete this home, easy care vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops and birch cabinets. If more space is what you are after, head downstairs to the basement- your blank canvas. The Trails of Dawson Creek is a growing community offering affordable new construction. Stop by today

19. 2015-02-05
    historical
20. 2014-04-15
    price Price Change
21. 2013-09-20
    price Price Change
22. 2013-09-07
    listed New
23. 2013-08-21
    historical
24. 2013-08-17
    listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,349
• − Property taxes: −$5,717
• − Insurance: −$1,906
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,545
• − Management: −$4,545
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$11,087
• Taxable income: $7,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $11,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Boone CUSD 200
• NCES district ID: 1728700
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $59,553
• Composite: 16.73/100
• National rank: #9163
• State rank: #440 of 620 in IL

Livability — Poplar Grove

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #12394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar Grove, IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,927

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,507 people
• By 2030: 51,509 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 48,611 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 44,363 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 33,262 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 21,495 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: R (+14.5) · D 42.0% · R 56.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 4.2pp · 2024: -14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.5 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+14.6 2012: R+5.7 2008: D+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Current HPI: 232.9144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-14 Listed $381,125 NWIAR
• 2025-08-13 Listed $381,125 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-15 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-20 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-07 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $40 · -14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.