403 Shappee St · Horseheads, NY 14845

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1965 0.37 ac lot Est $174k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANK OWNED AND A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN INSTEAD OF RENTING. NEEDS TLC BUT PRICED BELOW ASSESSMENT. 3 BEDROOM, 1 BATH, UNHEATED ROOM AND EXTRA LONG GARAGE. SEE AGENT NOTES FOR OFFER INFO AND SHOWINGS INSTRUCTIONS.

Key facts

• Family room addition
• Spacious kitchen
• Water heater

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM ADDITION
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WORKSHOP BEHIND GARAGE
• VINYL SIDING
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#494 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $140k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,496
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2805 Westinghouse Rd	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,189 (+4%)	4mo	$170,215	$143	80
325 Shappee St	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,025 (-11%)	3mo	$179,900	$176	75
321 Shappee St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-9%)	8mo	$155,000	$148	74
133 Berkley Ln	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,209 (+5%)	10mo	$192,000	$159	69
106 Matthews Cir	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-10%)	6mo	$156,914	$152	66
313 Gardner Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+2%)	10mo	$185,000	$157	60
415 Gardner Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+9%)	5mo	$65,550	$53	57
137 Matthew Cir	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,009 (-12%)	8mo	$146,264	$145	55
209 Winding Way	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	11mo	$157,000	$157	53
302 Gardner Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,289 (+12%)	0mo	$179,900	$140	50
218 Lynhurst Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (+12%)	4mo	$122,000	$95	43
1069 W Broad St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	11mo	$212,500	$204	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-24,756
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-23,798
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14845

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,655/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $133,836

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 S Main St Horseheads, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-12
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-04
   listed $140,000 Active
4. 2007-03-06
   soldstatus $54,100
5. 2007-03-05
   soldstatus $54,100 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   BANK OWNED AND A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN INSTEAD OF RENTING. NEEDS TLC BUT PRICED BELOW ASSESSMENT. 3 BEDROOM, 1 BATH, UNHEATED ROOM AND EXTRA LONG GARAGE. SEE AGENT NOTES FOR OFFER INFO AND SHOWINGS INSTRUCTIONS.

6. 2006-10-02
   listed $54,100 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   BANK OWNED AND A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN INSTEAD OF RENTING. NEEDS TLC BUT PRICED BELOW ASSESSMENT. 3 BEDROOM, 1 BATH, UNHEATED ROOM AND EXTRA LONG GARAGE. SEE AGENT NOTES FOR OFFER INFO AND SHOWINGS INSTRUCTIONS.

7. 2006-07-18
   soldstatus $42,500
8. 2003-02-05
   soldstatus $62,000
9. 2003-01-24
   soldstatus $62,000 75-char remark

   Show marketing remark (75 chars)

   FENCED REAR YARD, TANDEM 2 CAR GARAGE, ENCLOSED PA TIO & CENTRAL AIR.

10. 2002-06-14
    listed $59,900 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    FENCED REAR YARD, TANDEM 2 CAR GARAGE, ENCLOSED PA TIO & CENTRAL AIR.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,655 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,655 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,655
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Horseheads Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614850
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,594
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2781
• State rank: #347 of 590 in NY

Livability — Horseheads

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #8689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseheads, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,552

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.23%
• Current HPI: 247.777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-12 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $140,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $54,100 Public Records
• 2007-03-05 Sold (MLS) $54,100 UNYREIS
• 2006-10-02 Listed $54,100 UNYREIS
• 2006-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2003-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-24 Sold (MLS) $62,000 UNYREIS
• 2002-06-14 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,655 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.