958 Kinmundy Rd · Louisville, IL 72858

$25,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1952 9,000 sqft lot $21/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime location in Louisville! This house is ready for you to update it and make it yours!

Key facts

• 9,000 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#958 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• North Clay CUSD 25 (rural): math 12% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #548 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Clay Elem/Jr High Sch (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,460 of 2,056 statewide, top 72%, 392 students, 0% FRL); North Clay Community High School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #379 of 693 statewide, top 57%, 178 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 40% district-wide (40 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($173 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $25k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $23,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.41%
• DSCR: 6.22
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,626
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -70.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 Broadway St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,275 (+7%)	10mo	$140,000	$110	64
960 Barbee Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (+1%)	8mo	$120,000	$100	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.02×
• Total profit: $49,166
• Equity at exit: $13,895

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.87×
• Total profit: $111,115
• Equity at exit: $23,758

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72858

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $261

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $699	-5% $692	+0% $685	+5% $678	+10% $671
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $640	+0% $685	+5% $729	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $691	base $685	+0.5pp $678	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $25,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $25,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $25,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $25,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $25,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-05-18
   price $25,000 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Prime location in Louisville! This house is ready for you to update it and make it yours!

10. 2026-05-14
    price $34,900 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    Prime location in Louisville! This house is ready for you to update it and make it yours!

11. 2026-04-30
    price $39,900 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    Prime location in Louisville! This house is ready for you to update it and make it yours!

12. 2026-04-03
    listed $50,000 Active 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    Prime location in Louisville! This house is ready for you to update it and make it yours!

13. 1995-01-20
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $8,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,002
• After-tax cash flow: $6,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clay CUSD 25
• NCES district ID: 1728810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,677
• Composite: 11.19/100
• National rank: #9727
• State rank: #548 of 620 in IL

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #958
• US rank: #18656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,917

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,388 people
• By 2030: 11,808 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 10,644 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 9,500 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 6,985 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 4,811 · -61.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.6% · R 82.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+63.6 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Current HPI: 260.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+78.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $25,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $34,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $39,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $50,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $772 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.