31 Lorraine Blvd · Horseheads, NY 14845

$165,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,285 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This 3,200+square-foot home in Horseheads is full of charm and ready for someone with creativity to make it shine. It has a warm, cozy farmhouse feel. While it needs some fixing up, it has great bones and tons of potential. The layout is very flexible. Both the main home and the attached apartment can be set up to fit your needs. In total, the home offers five bedrooms, giving you plenty of space for family, guests, hobbies, or even a rental opportunity. Unit A features a retro kitchen, living room, dining room, family room, & a laundry room. Unit B includes a kitchen and a living room. If you love cars or projects, the four-car garage is a huge bonus. Outside, you’ll find a barn

Key facts

• Garden area
• Flexible layout
• Carport

Tags

• BARN-STYLE SHED
• GARDEN AREA
• CARPORT
• TWO PORCHES
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 5.1% in Horseheads — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#494 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Center Street School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 280 students, 55% FRL); Horseheads Middle School (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 572 students, 36% FRL); Horseheads Senior High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,142 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 24% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $165k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.95%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,535
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
911 S Main St	0.62mi	5/2.0	2,945 (-10%)	15mo	$150,000	$51	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $44,500
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $131,171
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14845

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,378/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $1,115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,208	-5% $1,161	+0% $1,115	+5% $1,068	+10% $1,021
Rent	-10% $857	-5% $986	+0% $1,115	+5% $1,244	+10% $1,373
Rate	-1.0pp $1,198	-0.5pp $1,157	base $1,115	+0.5pp $1,072	+1.0pp $1,028

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1.5	$1,722
1× unit	2	1	$1,544
Total (2 units)			$3,266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
911 S Main St Horseheads, NY	4.0	3.0	2945	$4,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $165,000
3. 2026-04-08
   price $175,000
4. 2026-03-24
   listed $199,000 Active
5. 2020-10-19
   soldstatus $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,378 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,378 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$6,378
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,135
• − Management: −$3,135
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $11,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,802
• After-tax cash flow: $10,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Horseheads Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614850
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,594
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2781
• State rank: #347 of 590 in NY

Livability — Horseheads

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #8689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseheads, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,552

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.23%
• Current HPI: 247.777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+70.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $165,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $175,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $199,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,378 · +51.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.