34 Dogwood Loop · Bloomingburg, NY 12721

$50,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,300 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 $1069/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks with this doublewide mobile home ready for a renovation. This home needs repairs and updates but offers serious potential for the right buyer with vision and tools in hand. This home features 4 bedrooms and 1 1/2 bathrooms located in the desirable Whispering Pines community. Being sold as is. Bring your imagination. This is your chance to transform a fixer upper into a beautiful home. Screened in porch and shed both have electric. Lot rent is $1,069 a month which includes road maintenance, garbage, taxes, sewer and water. New owner must be approved by management. Seller makes no representations. Buyer to do own due diligence and verify all information. Close to Route 17.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Shed with electric
• Built 1987

Tags

• WHISPERING PINES COMMUNITY
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• SHED WITH ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 3.6% in Bloomingburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,175 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Circleville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 54% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.69%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Palm Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,160 (-6%)	3mo	$146,500	$68	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $35,465
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $88,915
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12721

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$1,069
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,069 · $12,828/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashelectric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-15
   listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,537
• − Management: −$2,537
• − HOA: −$12,828
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,053
• After-tax cash flow: $6,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bloomingburg

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1175
• US rank: #25817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,590

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scandinavian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.80%
• Current HPI: 320.383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listed $50,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid