837 Alderwood Dr · Red Oak, TX 75154

$419,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,105 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2025 5,881 sqft lot $82/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21211297 - Built by HistoryMaker Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this stunning new construction single-family residence in The Oaks, boasting 2,105 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. This traditional-style home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, perfect for family living. Enjoy modern amenities such as high-speed internet, cable TV availability, and decorative lighting throughout. The open layout includes a cozy living area and a dedicated dining space, ideal for entertaining. The private yard offers a serene retreat, while the two-car garage provides ample storage. With a combination of carpet, ceramic tile, and luxury vinyl plank flooring, the home strikes t

Key facts

• Near schools
• New construction
• Private yard

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PRIVATE YARD
• OPEN LAYOUT
• MODERN AMENITIES
• NEAR SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool; Community park
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Semi-annual HOA fees; HOA covers grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, and management fees; HOA management: CMA Management

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with 20' x 20' dimensions and garage door opener
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction (2025) — incomplete
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2025
• Exterior features: Private yard; Wood fencing; Less than 0.5-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); 7 total rooms; One-level layout; 1 living area; 1 dining area
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields El (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 563 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $316,928 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-71,659
• Equity at exit: $62,622

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-67,584
• Equity at exit: $36,313

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,173/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,237

Max offer price $410,542

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $65	+0% $-53	+5% $-172	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-179	+0% $-53	+5% $72	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $53	base $-53	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1227 Stockton Trl Red Oak, TX	4.0	3.0	2752	$3,400	$1.24	44d	1	0.22mi
124 Clear Creek Dr Red Oak, TX	5.0	3.5	2964	$2,845	$0.96	25d	1	1.07mi
168 Creekview Dr E Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,095	$1.14	44d	1	1.35mi
111 Creekview Dr W Unit 1056457P Red Oak, TX	5.0	2.0	2389	$12,368	$5.18	22d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr
• Likely covers: internetcable

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $419,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,686 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,513/yr (+$543/mo · 555.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$1,173
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,043
• − Management: −$3,043
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$8,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,933
• After-tax cash flow: $1,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Oak, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $419,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,173 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.