648 Butler Mill Rd · Oliver Springs, TN 37840

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot $72/sqft · 48% below area Est $384k · 48% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors and buyers with a vision--this unique property is packed with potential and ready for your personal touch! Opportunity awaits with this one-of-a-kind property featuring a tankless water heater, gas stove, central heat and air, and plenty of covered parking with an RV carport, attached 2-car carport, and additional detached carport. The basement offers more potential, a workshop space, and there's even a separate hair salon with a full bath--ideal for a home business or guest suite. Enjoy a peaceful setting with a creek along the back of the property and convenient access to Windrock Mountain. The home does need some work and is priced accordingly, including a failed septic system (permit and plans on file for replacement), flood cuts throughout the basement and the flooring has been removed due to a prior sewer issue, and an in-ground pool in need of a new liner and equipment. Some personal belongings may remain and will be the buyer's responsibility to remove. A great opportunity to customize and add value!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Elementary (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 952 statewide, top 32%, 808 students, 0% FRL); Cherokee Middle School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 333 statewide, top 15%, 470 students, 0% FRL); Roane County High School (math 2% / reading 42%, grade F, #156 of 332 statewide, top 49%, 652 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,091 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,252
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -47.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 W Spring St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,800 (+1%)	18mo	$250,000	$89	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $11,859
• Equity at exit: $94,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $60,017
• Equity at exit: $148,253

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37840

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $155,375

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-196	+0% $-253	+5% $-309	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-305	+0% $-253	+5% $-200	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-202	base $-253	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $215,000 1051-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1051 chars)

    Calling all investors and buyers with a vision--this unique property is packed with potential and ready for your personal touch! Opportunity awaits with this one-of-a-kind property featuring a tankless water heater, gas stove, central heat and air, and plenty of covered parking with an RV carport, attached 2-car carport, and additional detached carport. The basement offers more potential, a workshop space, and there's even a separate hair salon with a full bath--ideal for a home business or guest suite. Enjoy a peaceful setting with a creek along the back of the property and convenient access to Windrock Mountain. The home does need some work and is priced accordingly, including a failed septic system (permit and plans on file for replacement), flood cuts throughout the basement and the flooring has been removed due to a prior sewer issue, and an in-ground pool in need of a new liner and equipment. Some personal belongings may remain and will be the buyer's responsibility to remove. A great opportunity to customize and add value!

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $225,000 Active 1051-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1051 chars)

    Calling all investors and buyers with a vision--this unique property is packed with potential and ready for your personal touch! Opportunity awaits with this one-of-a-kind property featuring a tankless water heater, gas stove, central heat and air, and plenty of covered parking with an RV carport, attached 2-car carport, and additional detached carport. The basement offers more potential, a workshop space, and there's even a separate hair salon with a full bath--ideal for a home business or guest suite. Enjoy a peaceful setting with a creek along the back of the property and convenient access to Windrock Mountain. The home does need some work and is priced accordingly, including a failed septic system (permit and plans on file for replacement), flood cuts throughout the basement and the flooring has been removed due to a prior sewer issue, and an in-ground pool in need of a new liner and equipment. Some personal belongings may remain and will be the buyer's responsibility to remove. A great opportunity to customize and add value!

19. 2026-04-06
    historical $225,000 1051-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1051 chars)

    Calling all investors and buyers with a vision--this unique property is packed with potential and ready for your personal touch! Opportunity awaits with this one-of-a-kind property featuring a tankless water heater, gas stove, central heat and air, and plenty of covered parking with an RV carport, attached 2-car carport, and additional detached carport. The basement offers more potential, a workshop space, and there's even a separate hair salon with a full bath--ideal for a home business or guest suite. Enjoy a peaceful setting with a creek along the back of the property and convenient access to Windrock Mountain. The home does need some work and is priced accordingly, including a failed septic system (permit and plans on file for replacement), flood cuts throughout the basement and the flooring has been removed due to a prior sewer issue, and an in-ground pool in need of a new liner and equipment. Some personal belongings may remain and will be the buyer's responsibility to remove. A great opportunity to customize and add value!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,420 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County
• NCES district ID: 4703590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,611
• Composite: 25.0/100
• National rank: #7557
• State rank: #64 of 139 in TN

Livability — Oliver Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #13008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oliver Springs, TN
• Population (ZIP): 10,402

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,652 people
• By 2030: 47,648 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 43,306 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 39,294 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 32,318 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 27,137 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.5) · D 22.1% · R 76.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -54.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.5 2020: R+50.9 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+41.3 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Current HPI: 350.9193
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $215,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $225,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $225,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,396 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.