2809 Dove Ave · Estelle, LA 70072

$84,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

4,791 sqft lot $61/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the well-established Cypress Grove Subdivision! This property is priced to reflect its condition and offers incredible potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. Enjoy the benefits of a sought-after neighborhood at an exceptional price point. All information provided is to the best of Seller's knowledge, buyers due diligence encouraged.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Barataria Dr take Cardinal to Dove Ave; bounding streets include Cardinal Dr, Cheryl St, Dede St

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service provided by Entergy
• Home design: Single-family residence; Property listed in fixer condition
• Exterior features: Brick veneer and wood siding exterior

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating and central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $876 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 5.7% in Estelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $85k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.56%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,179
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -63.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2800 Cardinal Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-4%)	1mo	$180,000	$133	85
2641 Long Branch Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+6%)	1mo	$250,000	$169	70
2732 Cardinal Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-8%)	8mo	$211,900	$164	69
2600 Long Branch Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,371 (-2%)	10mo	$265,000	$193	64
2932 Cardinal Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,225 (-13%)	5mo	$193,000	$158	63
2433 Lynnbrook Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,437 (+2%)	5mo	$189,000	$132	60
2764 Foliage Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-7%)	8mo	$260,000	$200	56
2405 Tattersall Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (-3%)	8mo	$228,250	$167	55
2209 Little Flower Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (+11%)	5mo	$285,000	$183	48
4048 N Dells St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (+11%)	4mo	$130,000	$83	46
2586 Foliage Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+12%)	8mo	$250,000	$159	46
2516 Foliage Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+12%)	3mo	$180,000	$115	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $38,318
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $90,597
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70072

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $859

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $924	-5% $900	+0% $876	+5% $852	+10% $828
Rent	-10% $720	-5% $798	+0% $876	+5% $953	+10% $1,031
Rate	-1.0pp $918	-0.5pp $897	base $876	+0.5pp $854	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2632 Dove Ave Unit NA Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	44d	1	0.31mi
2612 Susie Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,200	$1.19	20d	1	0.44mi
5118 Ehret Rd Unit B Marrero, LA	3.0	2.5	1275	$1,800	$1.41	5d	1	0.57mi
4016 S Dells St Harvey, LA	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,000	$1.14	44d	1	0.62mi
5128 Eden Roc Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	0.92mi
5045 Dueling Oaks Ave Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	24d	1	0.94mi
2236 Litchwood Ln Harvey, LA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	4d	1	0.95mi
2236 Litchwood Ln Harvey, LA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	2d	1	0.95mi
5007 Towering Oaks Ave Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	44d	1	0.96mi
2425 Ramsey Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	2d	1	0.96mi
116 Sunrise Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,750	$1.43	44d	1	1.02mi
5504 Randolph St Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	24d	1	1.10mi
5913 S Oak Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	24d	1	1.17mi
3019 Aspin Dr Harvey, LA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	24d	1	1.21mi
5119 Oak Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	15d	1	1.31mi
2417 Highland Meadows Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $84,900 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   status $84,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   status $84,900 Pending 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Contingent (No Show) 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    listed $84,900 Active 376-char remark
13. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $9,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $8,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Estelle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estelle, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 55,693
• Household income: $54,885
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1807.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.87%
• Current HPI: 161.7477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+51.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-16 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-09 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-23 Contingent — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $84,900 AcadianaMLS
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,574 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.