217 Forrest St · Bay, AR 72411

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

10,454 sqft lot $35/sqft · 67% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper. Current systems/appliances are not guaranteed to work. To be sold AS-IS but this property has great potential! On the main level find 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom along with the Laundry room. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. This home will not work for FHA, VA, RD or any Secondary Market loan. Agents see private remarks.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Parking
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($405/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay School District (rural): math 33% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #120 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bay Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #229 of 454 statewide, top 54%, 321 students, 63% FRL); Bay High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #92 of 292 statewide, top 37%, 241 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.87%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,427
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -66.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Church St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	13mo	$199,900	$130	79
204 Fielder St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-5%)	2mo	$179,900	$121	73
205 Sparkey Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,451 (-8%)	9mo	$161,100	$111	55
600 Fielder St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,367 (-13%)	8mo	$185,000	$135	54
125 Summer Leigh Cv	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-14%)	6mo	$194,500	$145	54
213 N Bay	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+10%)	14mo	$220,000	$127	49
114 Mallard Cv	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,693 (+8%)	11mo	$210,000	$124	46
102 Woody Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+11%)	7mo	$250,000	$144	45
504 Holmes	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,418 (-10%)	20mo	$95,700	$67	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $23,457
• Equity at exit: $40,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $66,970
• Equity at exit: $77,977

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72411

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $49	+0% $34	+5% $18	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $-6	+0% $34	+5% $74	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $48	base $34	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-11
   listed $55,000 Active 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper. Current systems/appliances are not guaranteed to work. To be sold AS-IS but this property has great potential! On the main level find 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom along with the Laundry room. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. This home will not work for FHA, VA, RD or any Secondary Market loan. Agents see private remarks.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $55,000 New Listing 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper. Current systems/appliances are not guaranteed to work. To be sold AS-IS but this property has great potential! On the main level find 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom along with the Laundry room. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. This home will not work for FHA, VA, RD or any Secondary Market loan. Agents see private remarks.

3. 2025-07-03
   historical
4. 2025-05-20
   status Back on Market
5. 2025-05-20
   status Active
6. 2025-04-22
   historical
7. 2025-04-22
   status Under Contract
8. 2024-12-23
   status Back on Market
9. 2024-12-23
   status Active
10. 2024-11-24
    historical
11. 2024-11-24
    status Under Contract
12. 2024-08-20
    price $147,900
13. 2024-08-19
    price $147,900
14. 2024-07-25
    listed $154,900 Active
15. 2024-07-25
    listed $154,900 New Listing
16. 2022-02-10
    soldstatus $129,000
17. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus $129,000
18. 2021-11-24
    listed $124,900
19. 2020-04-23
    soldstatus $67,500
20. 2020-01-30
    listed $79,900
21. 2010-03-09
    soldstatus $66,000
22. 2007-03-09
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 1996-08-20
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$5,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$978
• − Management: −$978
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable loss: −$203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$49
• After-tax cash flow: $454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 0502820
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,197
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6587
• State rank: #120 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5958

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,072

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.54%
• Current HPI: 222.9201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+17.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $55,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $55,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-04-22 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-04-22 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Relisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2024-11-24 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2024-11-24 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $147,900 CARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $147,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $154,900 CARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $154,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2022-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-09 Sold (MLS) $129,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2021-11-24 Listed $124,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2020-04-23 Sold (MLS) $67,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2020-01-30 Listed $79,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2010-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · -20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.