471 Almond Dr #69 · Lodi, CA 95240

$89,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition $94/sqft · 7% above area Est $84k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION!! Welcome Home to this well cared for 2 bedroom, 2 bath Mobile Home in the Almond Drive Estates Senior Park. Amenities include a Pool, Clubhouse with full kitchen, pool table, library, big screen tv and Bingo twice a month. This home has a very large living room and Dining Room combination with two large picture windows. The Dining Room has a built-in hutch. The flooring throughout the home is laminate with linoleum in both bathrooms. The Guest bathroom has the tub with shower and the Master bathroom has a large exterior area with sink and counters separate from the shower and toilet. The HVAC system is new within the last year. There is also a large enclosed back porc

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Pool
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FULL KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• LARGE ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Located in a senior community; Land lease required (monthly land lease amount $877)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Remodeled/updated; Built in 1969
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting; Manufacturer: Star
• Exterior features: Covered patio and covered deck; Porch with steps; Porch; Storage shed(s); Storage area; Regular-shaped site

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Low-flow toilets; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Pantry cabinet; Ceramic and laminate counters; Dining and living room combined; Great room living area; Screened room; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in kitchen; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,299 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.77%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,391
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: 6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $34,311
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $88,410
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Almond Dr Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,725	$2.28	19d	3	0.12mi
445 Almond Dr Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,750	$2.31	23d	3	0.12mi
1819 S Cherokee Ln #13 Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	44d	1	0.17mi
123 Adobe Ct Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	23d	1	0.70mi
200 E Vine St Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,195	$1.91	44d	1	0.78mi
1720 S Hutchins St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$2,050	$3.04	2d	2	0.86mi
321 W Century Blvd Apt 30 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,295	$2.27	23d	1	0.90mi
1826 S Hutchins St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	727	$1,750	$2.41	2d	3	0.91mi
619 S Sacramento St Unit 619 Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,800	$2.77	44d	1	1.08mi
2890 S Stockton St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$3,495	$3.74	2d	3	1.12mi
514 S School St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	955	$2,000	$2.09	44d	1	1.19mi
515 E Walnut St Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	19d	1	1.32mi
835 W Harney Ln Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,195	$2.61	2d	7	1.33mi
33 S Garfield St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	852	$1,545	$1.81	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $89,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $89,999 Pending 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $8,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $7,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home in a senior park offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Replace window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B