338 Erie Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2005 7,802 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in good condition in need of some minor cosmetic repairs, new carpet/paint. Priced to sell, come see it today!

Key facts

• Newer appliances
• Convenient access
• Split-bedroom design

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: HOA: POINCIANA with required monthly fee of $100

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence (PUD); One story; Southwest facing
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on 0 to less than 1/4 acre lot (approx. 0.18 acres)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Chain link fence; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-948/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $220k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,374 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-29,788
• Equity at exit: $48,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,010
• Equity at exit: $46,352

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,230/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $206,046

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-17	+0% $-79	+5% $-141	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-156	+0% $-79	+5% $-2	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-23	base $-79	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	15d	1	0.09mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	25d	1	0.17mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$1,695	$1.13	4d	1	0.22mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	5d	1	0.27mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	15d	1	0.27mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	16d	1	0.31mi
307 Michigan Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,744	$1.04	15d	1	0.31mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	0.32mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	5d	1	0.33mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	13d	1	0.33mi
1912 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1420	$1,995	$1.40	25d	1	0.35mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.35mi
1932 Michigan Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2236	$1,779	$0.80	5d	1	0.44mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	25d	1	0.49mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	5d	1	0.52mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	16d	1	0.56mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	15d	1	0.58mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	25d	1	0.58mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	5d	1	0.59mi
149 Conch Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	21d	1	0.60mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	16d	1	0.65mi
321 Drum Ln Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,715	$0.96	21d	1	0.66mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.66mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	5d	1	0.67mi
145 Ocean Bluff Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,500	$1.20	25d	1	0.68mi
310 Dogfish Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	25d	1	0.69mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,390	$1.32	4d	1	0.71mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.72mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	5d	1	0.72mi
14201 Indian Creek Dr #14201 Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,450	$1.19	25d	1	0.72mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.72mi
1786 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.72mi
320 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	3.0	1606	$1,795	$1.12	25d	1	0.74mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	5d	1	0.75mi
1805 Hudson Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,835	$1.20	25d	1	0.75mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	5d	1	0.79mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	16d	1	0.80mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	5d	1	0.82mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	5d	1	0.83mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	4d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $220,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-08
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,230
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1529.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-17 Sold (MLS) $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-02 Listed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-21 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-25 Listed $207,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,230 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.