15222 Dinnet Berm Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$358,800

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 225 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,250 sqft lot $132/sqft · at area comps Est $365k · at est. $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Balmoral community, this two-story home offers five bedrooms and three full bathrooms with a functional and flexible layout. The open-concept kitchen features a large island, ample counter space, and flows directly into the main living area. The first floor includes the primary bedroom and an additional secondary bedroom, along with two full bathrooms. Upstairs, there are three additional bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a spacious game room that can be used for entertainment, a media area, or a secondary living space; it also includes a covered patio and a spacious backyard. Residents of the Balmoral community have access to neighborhood amenities, including the Crystal Lagoon, white sand beaches, swimming pool, splash pad, parks, walking trails, and recreational areas. Great opportunity! This home qualifies for a $5,000 Chase Homebuyer Grant; reach out for more details.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Open-concept kitchen
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• SWIMMING POOL
• SPLASH PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-844 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 32% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1179 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,663 (41.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,202
• List price: $358,800
• Delta: -1.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12014 Delwood Terrace Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,749 (+1%)	1mo	$399,900	$145	84
15123 Sun Glaze Ct	0.25mi	5/3.5	2,824 (+4%)	4mo	$329,999	$117	76
15111 Sequoia Meadow Ct	0.17mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,618 (-4%)	4mo	$319,900	$122	76
15410 Trumball Manor Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,818 (+4%)	5mo	$412,500	$146	73
15407 Falkirk Green Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,590 (-4%)	2mo	$369,999	$143	69
12006 Loch Muick Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,400 (-12%)	2mo	$340,000	$142	67
12510 Bedford Bend Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,843 (+5%)	3mo	$370,000	$130	66
12526 Sabine Point Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,880 (+6%)	4mo	$379,900	$132	61
12726 Tullich Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,803 (+3%)	0mo	$379,999	$136	57
12739 Tullich Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,770 (+2%)	3mo	$355,000	$128	56
15819 Formaston Forest Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,611 (-4%)	2mo	$429,990	$165	54
15419 Formaston Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,574 (-5%)	1mo	$335,000	$130	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-87,355
• Equity at exit: $87,400

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-143,557
• Equity at exit: $92,451

Cash invested: $100,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $375,000 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1179
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,882
• Tax from tax record: −$784 /mo · $9,408/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,759

Max offer price $209,663

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-641	-5% $-743	+0% $-844	+5% $-946	+10% $-1,047
Rent	-10% $-1,057	-5% $-950	+0% $-844	+5% $-738	+10% $-632
Rate	-1.0pp $-664	-0.5pp $-753	base $-844	+0.5pp $-937	+1.0pp $-1,032

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,700
• Closing costs: $10,764
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	146d	1	0.09mi
15126 Sequoia Meadow Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2671	$2,595	$0.97	123d	1	0.14mi
12011 Summer Range Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2718	$2,660	$0.98	63d	1	0.19mi
15002 Golden Summer Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2479	$2,870	$1.16	17d	1	0.30mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1651	$2,550	$1.54	0d	18	0.59mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,581	$0.98	113d	1	0.60mi
11307 Huntcrest Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2305	$2,520	$1.09	64d	1	0.61mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$9,388	$2.90	184d	1	0.66mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	127d	1	0.73mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,466	$0.98	99d	1	0.78mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	165d	1	0.86mi
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX	4.0	3.5	3238	$3,700	$1.14	121d	1	0.90mi
15342 Majestic Knight Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,600	$1.18	57d	1	1.03mi
10730 Hillside Creek Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,486	$0.96	107d	1	1.13mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	143d	1	1.14mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	184d	1	1.14mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,540	$0.96	2d	1	1.17mi
10631 Hillside Creek Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,486	$0.96	99d	1	1.23mi
10638 Harbor Canyon Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2355	$2,181	$0.93	184d	1	1.27mi
15002 Silhouette Ridge Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2153	$2,315	$1.08	73d	1	1.29mi
15014 Silhouette Ridge Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2244	$1,249	$0.56	27d	1	1.30mi
15014 Silhouette Ridge Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2244	$1,249	$0.56	10d	1	1.30mi
15031 Silhouette Ridge Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,185	$1.01	152d	1	1.34mi
10502 Lake of the Ozarks Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2370	$2,226	$0.94	57d	1	1.39mi
14614 Kings Head Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	3029	$2,707	$0.89	1d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail $88/mo · $1,056/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $358,800 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $358,800 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $358,800 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $358,800 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $358,800 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $358,800 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $358,800 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $358,800 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $358,800 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $358,800 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $358,800 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $358,800 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $358,800 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $358,800 Active 211 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $358,800 Active 210 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $358,800 Active 209 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $358,800 Active 208 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $358,800 Active 207 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $358,800 Active 206 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $358,800 Active 205 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $358,800 Active 204 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $358,800 Active 203 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $358,800 Active 202 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $358,800 Active 201 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $358,800 Active 200 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $358,800 Active 199 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $358,800 Active 198 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $358,800 Active 197 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $358,800 Active 196 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $358,800 Active 195 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $358,800 Active 194 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $358,800 Active 193 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $358,800 Active 192 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $358,800 Active 191 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $358,800 Active 190 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $358,800 Active 189 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $358,800 Active 188 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $358,800 Active 187 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $358,800 Active 186 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $358,800 Active 185 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $358,800 Active 184 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $358,800 Active 183 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $358,800 Active 182 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $358,800 Active 181 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $358,800 Active 180 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $358,800 Active 179 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $358,800 Active 178 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $358,800 Active 177 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $358,800 Active 176 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $358,800 Active 175 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,408 · $784/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,408 · $784/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,098
• − Property taxes: −$9,408
• − Insurance: −$2,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,583
• − Management: −$2,583
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$10,438
• Taxable loss: −$16,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in the Balmoral community is in good condition with a functional and flexible layout. It offers five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a spacious backyard. The property is move-in ready with minor updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Modernizes bathrooms and enhances appeal to potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridge Creek El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Woodcreek Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Humble H S F TX #1,348/1,632 Nat'l #13,542/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $368,800 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $388,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $380,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $415,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-30 Listed $330,815 HARMLS

Property tax history

+61.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,408 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.