198 Martingale Dr · Theodosia, MO 65761

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 1993 Fair condition 6,534 sqft lot $53/sqft · 14% below area Est $76k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bed, 2 bath mobile home was built in 1993, has 1216 sq. ft. of living space, and has both a front and back porch. All the appliances (including a new cook stove) and furniture can stay with the new owners. The kitchen and living room are both nice sized with bedrooms on each end. Hooked to both city water and sewer. The home sits on a small level lot within walking distance of several businesses in Theodosia. With some clean up and TLC, you can have a furnished home with not much invested. Also, you won't spend all your free time cutting grass which leaves more time for fishing. Bull Shoals Lake is 1 mile away!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One-story; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal/other roof; Built area approximately 1,216
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Level lot; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road; Chip-and-seal and gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air; Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated double-pane windows; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Propane utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.1% in Theodosia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#649 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lutie R-VI (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #510 of 535 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lutie Elem. (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 50 students, 94% FRL); Lutie High (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 53 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 66% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.59%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,768
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Cloverdale Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-8%)	8mo	$76,000	$68	60
44 Brookfield Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,101 (-10%)	14mo	$69,900	$63	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $43,567
• Equity at exit: $42,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $109,873
• Equity at exit: $79,864

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65761

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $403	-5% $380	+0% $358	+5% $335	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $317	+0% $358	+5% $398	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $374	base $358	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,499 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,499 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,499 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,499 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,499 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,499 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,499 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,499 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,499 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,499 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $78,499 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,499 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,499 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,499 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $78,499 Active 625-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$981
• − Management: −$981
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$831
• After-tax cash flow: $3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1993 manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, but with some updates, it can be a move-in-ready property with good resale and rental potential.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — wallpaper and paint show some wear
• Minor landscaping — low-maintenance landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint and wallpaper — Fresh paint and wallpaper can make the home more appealing to buyers and renters
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · wallpaper and paint show some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · low-maintenance landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint and wallpaper — Fresh paint and wallpaper can make the home more appealing to buyers and renters ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lutie R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2923400
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $35,359
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #13904
• State rank: #510 of 535 in MO

Livability — Theodosia

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #21869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Theodosia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,383

Population outlook (Ozark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,561 people
• By 2030: 8,040 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 7,069 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,310 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 5,095 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 4,112 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ozark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.6% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.2pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.51%
• Current HPI: 223.1575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $78,499 SOMO