3985 Wrenwood Dr · Lakeland, FL 33811

$339,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,240 sqft · Land · 142 Days on market

Built 2026 5,999 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Discover your dream home at Lakeside Preserve. Conveniently located near I-4 and SR-570, commuting to Tampa or Orlando is a breeze. Plus, just across the street, you'll find Lakeside Village with a variety of shops and dining options like Cold Stone Creamery, Books-a-Million, Kohl's, Burger 21, and more. Imagine living in a beautiful, gated community with stunning homes and fantastic amenities. Dive into our refreshing pool, relax in the cabana, or take a stroll on our scenic walking trails. There's something for everyone at Lakeside Preserve! The Willow single-family home has what you want. From the foyer or 2-car garage, enter to a wide-open floor plan. Vers

Key facts

• Gated community
• Refreshing pool
• Flex space

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• REFRESHING POOL
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• FLEX SPACE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LUXURY OWNER SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: CDD present; Other annual assessment (reported separately)
• HOA & community: HOA: Ryan Homes (monthly fee $38); Community amenities: gated entry, pool, playground, park, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x21) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Pre-construction / projected completion Nov 30, 2026; South-facing
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Ryan Homes (model: WILLOW)
• Exterior features: Patio; Gunite in-ground pool; Sidewalks; Paved roads; Trees and landscaped grounds; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Drip irrigation and reclaimed-water irrigation; Low-flow water fixtures

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Inside utility; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 382 students, 60% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $270,546 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-78,898
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-119,609
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,022

Max offer price $303,774

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 Caprice Dr Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1241	$3,451	$2.78	21d	25	0.13mi
3442 Cup Dr Unit 04 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,975	$1.62	23d	1	0.68mi
3412 Cup Dr Unit 9 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,975	$1.62	23d	1	0.68mi
3372 Turnberry Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	2472	$4,000	$1.62	23d	1	0.71mi
3460 Cup Dr Unit 01 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,864	$1.56	10d	1	0.77mi
3442 Cup Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,975	$1.63	3d	1	0.79mi
3370 Cup Dr Unit 16 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,975	$1.62	3d	1	0.87mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	3d	1	0.90mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,900	$1.30	23d	1	0.90mi
1454 Marigold Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,071	$1.28	14d	1	0.90mi
4629 Harden Blvd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1968	$2,261	$1.15	19d	1	1.07mi
570 Villa Vista Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1783	$1,450	$0.81	23d	1	1.21mi
553 Villa Vista Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,100	$1.18	23d	1	1.25mi
502 El Camino Real S Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,098	$1.36	3d	1	1.33mi
3344 Mystic Pond Loop Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	3d	1	1.40mi
632 Cortez St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,950	$1.29	23d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,990 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,990 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,990 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,990 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,990 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,990 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,990 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,990 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,990 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,990 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,990 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-03-05
    price $350,990
15. 2026-02-24
    price $347,990
16. 2026-02-10
    status Active
17. 2026-01-21
    historical
18. 2026-01-07
    listed $344,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,597
• − Management: −$2,597
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$8,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,141
• After-tax cash flow: $-863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $350,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $347,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid