202 E Fordyce Ave · Kingsville, TX 78363

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1940 10,498 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS come look at this "AS-IS" DUPLEX in Kingsville with great bones. One unit has a two bedroom one bath, second unit is a one bedroom one bath. It's situated on a large corner lot of a residential and commercial area. Rehab to rent units to college students, as Texas A & M is about 2 miles away, or sell after rehab. Either way, a good investment opportunity! It's convenient to restaurants, shopping, schools, college and easy access to HWY 77 and main roads. It has back-alley access ready to build either a garage, garage apartment or parking lot. This is a MUST SEE to appreciate.

Key facts

• Back-alley access
• Corner lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACK-ALLEY ACCESS
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 77

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Duplex (2 total units)
• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Rear/side/off-street parking
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Built with wood siding
• Exterior features: Corner lot; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; No additional interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 5.4% in Kingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.43%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $48,494
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.79×
• Total profit: $141,826
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78363

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $847	-5% $829	+0% $810	+5% $792	+10% $774
Rent	-10% $678	-5% $744	+0% $810	+5% $877	+10% $943
Rate	-1.0pp $843	-0.5pp $827	base $810	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $776

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
908 E Doddridge Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.62mi
307 W Alice Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	44d	1	0.63mi
1107 E Kenedy Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1526	$2,300	$1.51	22d	1	0.80mi
614 W Alice Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$1,599	$0.93	44d	1	0.81mi
629 W Nettie Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$1,495	$0.85	44d	1	1.02mi
1204 W Lee Ave Kingsville, TX	4.0	2.5	1970	$1,825	$0.93	44d	1	1.18mi
710 E C Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,250	$1.00	14d	1	1.19mi
503 W Mesquite Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	14d	1	1.27mi
1342 Virginia Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,500	$1.42	22d	1	1.40mi
915 S 23rd St Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$1,900	$1.11	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $65,000 Active
17. 2025-05-22
    listed $67,000 Active
18. 1999-02-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,229
• After-tax cash flow: $7,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,308
• Composite: 14.5/100
• National rank: #9425
• State rank: #800 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #7787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsville, TX
• County: Kleberg County · 28,920 people
• City population: 28,920
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,920
• Household income: $60,574
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Kleberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,615 people
• By 2030: 32,054 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 33,008 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 34,536 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 40,931 · +29.5%
• By 2100: 46,001 · +45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 36% White 20% Black 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kleberg

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.3% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+1.7 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.12%
• Current HPI: 147.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $65,000 CBMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $67,000 CBMLS
• 1999-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,757 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.