1601 Wrangler Ln · Midland, TX 79705

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2016 5,793 sqft lot Est $287k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love with the open concept, ideal for quality time with family or hosting friends. Neutral colors complement any decor, while the oversized living room, spacious dining area, and inviting master bedroom offer plenty of comfort. The laundry room even has extra storage space. Outside, the large yard is perfect for playsets or a trampoline. Don't miss the chance to see this one before it's gone.

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Open concept
• Large yard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Single Family
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $25 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.133-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Gas water heater; Carpet flooring; Tile flooring; Ceiling fan(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,815 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,419
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1401 Brand Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+8%)	10mo	$310,000	$187	70
6907 Saddle Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+11%)	1mo	$309,000	$181	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,646
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,346
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,508 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,032/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $286,251

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $7	+0% $-78	+5% $-163	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-177	+0% $-78	+5% $21	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $-2	base $-78	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	14d	1	0.06mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	14d	1	0.08mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	21d	1	0.11mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	44d	1	0.13mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	44d	1	0.16mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	21d	1	0.18mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	44d	1	0.26mi
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	21d	1	0.32mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	14d	1	0.34mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	14d	1	0.41mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	14d	1	0.44mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	21d	1	0.50mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	14d	1	0.60mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	14d	1	0.61mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	21d	1	0.62mi
1115 Overshine Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	14d	1	0.78mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	44d	1	0.79mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	14d	1	0.85mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	14d	1	0.87mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	44d	1	0.87mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	44d	1	0.88mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	44d	1	0.89mi
1416 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1933	$3,150	$1.63	14d	1	0.89mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	44d	1	0.90mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	44d	1	0.90mi
1325 Hogback Way Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	44d	1	0.90mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	14d	1	0.90mi
2409 Husk St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,800	$1.45	14d	1	0.90mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	44d	1	0.90mi
1341 Loess St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,795	$1.72	44d	1	0.91mi
1348 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.91mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	44d	1	0.91mi
1336 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,899	$1.52	44d	1	0.92mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	14d	1	0.92mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	14d	1	0.92mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	44d	1	0.94mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.94mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.94mi
1341 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	21d	1	0.94mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	44d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $300,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 403-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,032 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,458/yr (+$121/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,032
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $300,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,032 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.