40339 Bay Warbler Way · Magnolia, TX 77354

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,599 sqft lot $159/sqft · 18% below area Est $285k · 18% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This bright and stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Step into a freshly painted interior with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open layout designed for easy living. Relax on the covered back porch, park with ease in the two-car garage, and enjoy worry-free landscaping with the front yard maintained by the HOA. Located in the sought-after Magnolia School District, Audubon is a clean, welcoming community in an up-and-coming area with exciting new shops, dining, and development nearby. Move-in ready—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Covered back porch
• 4,599 sq ft lot

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• WORRY-FREE LANDSCAPING
• MAGNOLIA SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,384 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,417
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -17.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40511 Tyto Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+1%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	91
40530 Tyto Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	89
40423 Gerygone Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	9mo	$289,900	$198	85
40414 Gerygone Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	11mo	$269,900	$184	84
40731 Barley Straw	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+0%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	74
40025 Mill Creek Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-2%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$765	72
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	5mo	$304,900	$189	72
40551 Berylline Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	12mo	$274,900	$170	71
40431 Gerygone Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	10mo	$279,900	$173	69
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+7%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	67
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-10%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	63
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+9%)	5mo	$350,000	$218	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $115,871
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $335,785
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $217,384

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.07mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.08mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.19mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	43d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $235,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $244,900 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    This bright and stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Step into a freshly painted interior with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open layout designed for easy living. Relax on the covered back porch, park with ease in the two-car garage, and enjoy worry-free landscaping with the front yard maintained by the HOA. Located in the sought-after Magnolia School District, Audubon is a clean, welcoming community in an up-and-coming area with exciting new shops, dining, and development nearby. Move-in ready—schedule your tour today!

16. 2025-12-05
    historical $1,995
17. 2025-12-04
    historical
18. 2025-11-13
    listed $259,900 Active
19. 2025-09-17
    price $1,995
20. 2025-08-29
    listed $2,100
21. 2025-04-23
    historical
22. 2025-03-26
    status Active
23. 2025-03-14
    status Pending
24. 2025-03-07
    status Option Pending
25. 2025-02-07
    price $249,000
26. 2025-01-29
    price $258,000
27. 2025-01-06
    price $260,000
28. 2024-12-31
    listed $275,000 Active
29. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2022-09-23
    status Pending
31. 2022-09-12
    price $289,990
32. 2022-08-02
    price $299,990
33. 2022-07-22
    historical
34. 2022-07-22
    listed $307,990 Active
35. 2022-07-01
    price $307,990
36. 2022-06-17
    price $299,990
37. 2022-04-29
    listed $317,026 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,920 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,920 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $14/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in Magnolia offers a bright and stylish interior with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. The well-maintained landscaping and covered porch add to its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Rental Removed $1,995 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $1,995 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $258,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2022-08-02 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Listed $317,026 HARMLS

Property tax history

+73.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,920 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.