Is 40339 Bay Warbler Way in Magnolia, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 5.9% cap rate and $-75/mo modeled cash flow at a $229,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 40339 Bay Warbler Way?

The modeled cap rate is 5.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,267/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 59.71

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +11.5/30.0
Appreciation +10.0/10.0
1% rule +4.9/10.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
DSCR +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0

$229,900

40339 Bay Warbler Way · Magnolia, TX 77354

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,599 sqft lot 2-car garage $156/sqft · 19% below area Est $285k · 19% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This bright and stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home delivers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Step into a freshly painted interior with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open layout designed for easy living. Relax on the covered back porch, park with ease in the two-car garage, and enjoy worry-free landscaping with the front yard maintained by the HOA. Located in the sought-after Magnolia School District, Audubon is a clean, welcoming community in an up-and-coming area with exciting new shops, dining, and development nearby. Move-in ready—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

Granite countertops
Covered back porch
4,599 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-897/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (5.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (1.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.99% ✗
Cap rate: 5.90%
Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
DSCR: 0.94
GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $285,441
List price: $229,900
Delta: -17.67%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40511 Tyto Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+1%)	2mo	$235,000	$158	90
40530 Tyto Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	3mo	$274,900	$188	88
40423 Gerygone Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-1%)	10mo	$289,900	$198	84
40659 Balsam Run Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-3%)	1mo	$239,000	$167	75
40731 Barley Straw	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+0%)	4mo	$264,990	$180	72
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	7mo	$304,900	$189	70
40431 Gerygone Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+10%)	12mo	$279,900	$173	68
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+7%)	4mo	$279,990	$178	66
40614 Balsam Run Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-10%)	0mo	$244,990	$184	64
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-10%)	3mo	$239,990	$181	61
40723 Barley Straw Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+12%)	0mo	$249,990	$151	54
40418 Winding Way Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+9%)	7mo	$350,000	$218	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 22.3%
Equity multiple: 2.78×
Total profit: $114,702
Equity at exit: $207,112

10-year hold

IRR: 19.3%
Equity multiple: 6.14×
Total profit: $331,123
Equity at exit: $446,645

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 32 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply: 10.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $264,990 ($168/sqft)
Median days on market: 129 d
This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +15.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

Home prices YoY: 2.4%
Rents YoY: 0.3%
Active inventory: 1924
Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,267 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
Insurance: −$96
HOA: −$154
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $216,702

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-10	+0% $-75	+5% $-140	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-164	+0% $-75	+5% $15	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-16	base $-75	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,475
Closing costs: $6,897
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	93d	1	0.07mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	73d	1	0.08mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,781	$2.52	0d	40	0.19mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	21d	1	0.98mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.16mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	93d	1	1.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Lease considered
HOA & community: Audubon HOAAnnual association feeHOA includes common area maintenance, grounds maintenance, and recreation facilitiesCommunity features: curbsAssociation amenities: maintenance grounds, picnic area, playground, park

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageDriveway parking
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerPublic power
Home design: Residential propertySlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2022
Construction: Brick construction
Exterior features: DeckPatioFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigationCleared lotGreenbeltSubdivisionConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas rangeGas ovenOvenMicrowaveDisposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor)Bedroom (First floor)
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom (First floor)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central air (Electric)Energy-efficient HVACProgrammable thermostat
Interior features: Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboKitchen islandPantryGranite countersDouble vanityVanityTub with showerWindow treatmentsCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatInsulated doorsLow emissivity windowsWindow coveringsVentilation
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupTankless water heaterUtility room (First floor)

HOA detail $154/mo · $1,848/yr

Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

pricedays on market $229,900 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $235,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $235,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $235,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $235,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $235,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $235,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $235,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $235,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $235,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $235,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $235,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $235,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $235,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $235,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $235,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $235,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $235,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $235,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $235,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $235,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $235,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $235,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $235,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $235,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $235,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $235,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $235,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $235,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $235,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $235,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $235,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $235,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $235,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-08

price $235,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $239,900 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-02

pricedays on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $4,920 · $410/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $4,920 · $410/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,200
− Mortgage interest: −$12,878
− Property taxes: −$4,920
− Insurance: −$1,150
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
− Management: −$2,176
− HOA: −$1,848
− Depreciation: −$6,688
Taxable loss: −$4,635

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
After-tax cash flow: $216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in Magnolia offers a bright and stylish interior with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. The well-maintained landscaping and covered porch add to its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID: 4828740
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $71,692
Composite: 39.46/100
National rank: #3958
State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

Score: 73/100
State rank: #222
US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 32,847
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 44,900
Household income: $112,504
Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
Current HPI: 512.87
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

2026-06-08 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
2026-04-17 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
2025-12-05 Rental Removed $1,995 HARMLS
2025-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-11-13 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
2025-09-17 Price Changed $1,995 HARMLS
2025-08-29 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
2025-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-03-26 Relisted — HARMLS
2025-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
2025-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
2025-02-07 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
2025-01-29 Price Changed $258,000 HARMLS
2025-01-06 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
2024-12-31 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2022-09-23 Pending — HARMLS
2022-09-12 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
2022-08-02 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
2022-07-22 Listed $307,990 HARMLS
2022-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2022-07-01 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
2022-06-17 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
2022-04-29 Listed $317,026 HARMLS

Property tax history

+73.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,920 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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