38 County Road 1180 · Tira, TX 75432

$144,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1972 0.49 ac lot Est $164k · 12% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 1 bath home in the rural Delta county; community playground close by

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-407/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,524 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cooper ISD (rural): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #497 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cooper El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 467 students, 74% FRL); Cooper J H (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 179 students, 58% FRL); Cooper H S (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 242 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($999 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Delta County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,075 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 County Road 1180	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,499 (-12%)	1mo	$144,500	$96	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $44,985
• Equity at exit: $96,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $132,752
• Equity at exit: $180,460

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75432

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,194

Max offer price $138,507

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $7	+0% $-34	+5% $-75	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-79	+0% $-34	+5% $12	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $3	base $-34	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-29
   price $144,500
4. 2026-03-06
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,644 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,144/yr (+$95/mo · 76.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable loss: −$2,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$701
• After-tax cash flow: $294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815150
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,544
• Composite: 30.75/100
• National rank: #6160
• State rank: #497 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tira

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1524
• US rank: #26040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,299

Population outlook (Delta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,168 people
• By 2030: 5,108 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 4,960 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 4,832 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 4,402 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 3,893 · -24.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Delta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.9% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.3pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+45.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Current HPI: 236.9612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $144,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $155,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,500 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.