10078 Route 16 · Lime Lake, NY 14042

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1880 2.10 ac lot $37/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in the heart of Cattaraugus County and just minutes from Lime Lake, this property offers over 2 acres of land & the perfect blend of recreation, and upstate charm. Enjoy close proximity to boating, fishing, swimming, and year-round outdoor activities, with easy access to nearby hiking, snowmobiling, and hunting areas that make this region so desirable. A standout feature of the property is the oversized garage and dedicated workshop, ideal for contractors, hobbyists, mechanics, or anyone needing serious space for equipment, storage, or creative projects. Whether you’re running a small business, restoring vehicles, or simply want room to spread out, this setup delivers flexibility rarely found at this price point. Conveniently located along Route 16, the property provides easy access to surrounding towns while maintaining a private, rural feel. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or recreational base camp near Lime Lake and other local attractions. A unique opportunity for buyers seeking space, usability, and proximity to Western New York’s outdoor lifestyle. Rehab is needed being sold AS IS and financing will be limited.

Key facts

• Over 2 acres of land
• Dedicated workshop
• Private rural feel

Tags

• OVER 2 ACRES OF LAND
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY HIKING
• PRIVATE RURAL FEEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,109 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.44%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,409
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -74.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9945 Route 16	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+0%)	11mo	$160,000	$119	68
373 Lakeview Blvd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (-2%)	10mo	$460,000	$351	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $44,939
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.50×
• Total profit: $118,997
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14042

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $292	+0% $275	+5% $257	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $228	+0% $275	+5% $321	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $287	base $275	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    historical
17. 2026-04-03
    listed $60,000 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Set in the heart of Cattaraugus County and just minutes from Lime Lake, this property offers over 2 acres of land & the perfect blend of recreation, and upstate charm. Enjoy close proximity to boating, fishing, swimming, and year-round outdoor activities, with easy access to nearby hiking, snowmobiling, and hunting areas that make this region so desirable. A standout feature of the property is the oversized garage and dedicated workshop, ideal for contractors, hobbyists, mechanics, or anyone needing serious space for equipment, storage, or creative projects. Whether you’re running a small business, restoring vehicles, or simply want room to spread out, this setup delivers flexibility rarely found at this price point. Conveniently located along Route 16, the property provides easy access to surrounding towns while maintaining a private, rural feel. Perfect as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or recreational base camp near Lime Lake and other local attractions. A unique opportunity for buyers seeking space, usability, and proximity to Western New York’s outdoor lifestyle. Rehab is needed being sold AS IS and financing will be limited.

18. 2026-03-08
    price $60,000
19. 2026-01-29
    listed $65,000 Active
20. 2010-01-07
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$4,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $2,897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$695
• After-tax cash flow: $2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lime Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1109
• US rank: #22702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lime Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,207

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.20%
• Current HPI: 254.5285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2010-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,683 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.