2397 Nightingale Ln · Kelso, WA 98626

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $88k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This meticulously maintained, this super clean manufactured home in Kelso’s desirable Brookhollow Estates (55+ community) shines with fresh interior paint and large windows that fill the home with natural light. The bright kitchen includes a spacious pantry. The primary bedroom features a private bath, while the extra living room could easily be walled into a third bedroom. The home comes with all the appliances including a washer and dryer for added convenience. Recent updates include a NEW mini split heat pump and NEW hot water heater and a NEW Roof! Outside, a pet-friendly enclosure on the front deck area and a storage shed. The backyard backs up to a line of privacy trees to kee

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Spacious pantry
• Private bath

Tags

• BROOKHOLLOW ESTATES
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• PRIVATE BATH
• EXTRA LIVING ROOM
• ALL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.4% in Kelso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#324 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kelso School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Butler Acres Elementary (406 students, 60% FRL); Kelso High School (1,424 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $125k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2397 Nightingale Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$117,000	$102	99
2402 Nightingale Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,155 (+0%)	16mo	$90,000	$78	86
2416 Nightingale Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	15mo	$87,500	$76	85
2376 Kingfisher Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	5mo	$75,000	$60	79
2467 Meadowlark Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	17mo	$48,800	$42	78
151 Cardinal Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+6%)	3mo	$124,000	$101	77
2388 Mockingbird Ln	0.05mi	2/1.5	1,118 (-3%)	20mo	$35,000	$31	74
2392 Kingfisher	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	7mo	$125,000	$96	72
2422 Mockingbird Ln	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,022 (-11%)	9mo	$30,000	$29	68
2368 Kingfisher Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+8%)	21mo	$54,000	$44	66
2424 Kingfisher Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	16mo	$70,000	$69	63
1907 Crestwood Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+3%)	13mo	$371,000	$312	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,486
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $66,934
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98626

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Cardinal Ln Unit None Kelso, WA	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.16mi
910 Elizabeth St Kelso, WA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,625	$1.51	44d	1	1.16mi
206 Teresa Way Kelso, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,520	$2.03	44d	1	1.25mi
909 Pacific Ave S Kelso, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,550	$2.07	2d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   price $125,000
3. 2026-03-10
   listed $129,000 Active
4. 2024-10-18
   soldstatus $75,000 Closed
5. 2024-09-03
   status Pending
6. 2024-08-22
   price $77,900
7. 2024-08-07
   price $80,000
8. 2024-07-29
   price $84,900
9. 2024-07-05
   price $89,900
10. 2024-06-26
    price $99,000
11. 2024-06-19
    price $102,000
12. 2024-05-27
    price $105,000
13. 2024-05-02
    listed $109,900 Active
14. 2013-07-31
    historical
15. 2013-07-31
    soldstatus $21,500 Sold
16. 2013-07-22
    status Pending
17. 2013-07-09
    listed $22,000 Active
18. 2001-06-21
    soldstatus $33,500
19. 2001-05-22
    historical
20. 2001-04-11
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$625/yr (+$52/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $5,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso School District
• NCES district ID: 5300003
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,840
• Composite: 39.83/100
• National rank: #7963
• State rank: #191 of 291 in WA

Livability — Kelso

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #12232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelso, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• City population: 26,892
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,892
• Household income: $75,528
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.36%
• Current HPI: 262.8196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $77,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $84,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $89,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $102,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-27 Price Changed $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Listed $109,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-31 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-31 Sold (MLS) $21,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-09 Listed $22,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 2001-05-22 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-11 Listed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $600 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.