12540 Gold Rush Trl Unit F40-11 · Truckee, CA 96161

$17,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Est $18k · 5% under $869/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Settle into your perfect winter tradition-Week 11 (mid March) at Old Greenwood—a sought-after 4-bedroom cabin during one of the most desirable weeks of the year. You can expect either late season powder days or spring skiing, either one is a joy. Perched over holes #6, #7, and #8, the back deck of this unit offers a golfer's dream view of the course and its signature holes and pond. Enjoy afternoons playing the beautiful course, or watching the action from the comfort of your own unit. The view is one of the best at Old Greenwood. Enjoy all the comforts of a luxury home with spacious living areas, high-end finishes, and a cozy fireplace to gather around after a day on the mountain. Th

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association amenities include pool, tennis courts, golf course access, and downhill skiing; Quarterly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with 2 covered spaces (2-car)
• Utilities: Water: Utility district; Sewer: Utility district; Natural gas available
• Home design: Mountain-style architecture; Two levels; Used condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Located on a cul-de-sac; On a golf course; Level topography; Hot tub

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Stone; Mixed flooring
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central forced air heating (CFAH)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Loft; Great room; Home office; Mud room; High speed internet; Two or more primary bedrooms; Four or more ensuite bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $17k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $17k).
• Cap rate 368.9% vs local median 2.1% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,752/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $118 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $510 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $17,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 45.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 368.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 1295.19%
• DSCR: 58.63
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $17,910
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12540 Gold Rush Trl Unit F40-01	0.00mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	6mo	$12,000	$4	95
12622 Lookout Loop Unit F44-11	0.07mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	4mo	$16,000	$5	94
12508 Trappers Trl Unit F35-36	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	10mo	$13,000	$4	87
12278 Frontier Trl Unit F24-07	0.29mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	3mo	$21,000	$7	84
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-13	0.20mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	4mo	$15,000	$5	82
12403 Lookout Loop Unit F14-01	0.15mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	8mo	$10,000	$3	81
12258 Lookout Loop Unit F23-07	0.30mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	8mo	$25,000	$8	79
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-36	0.21mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	9mo	$18,000	$6	78
12458 Lookout Loop Unit F36-32	0.09mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,740 (-8%)	9mo	$17,500	$6	66
12382 Caleb Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5	3,405 (+14%)	9mo	$2,750,000	$808	59
11583 Henness Rd	0.60mi	4/4.5	3,121 (+5%)	10mo	$2,900,000	$929	56
10068 Olympic Blvd	0.67mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,750 (-8%)	4mo	$975,000	$355	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 75.40×
• Total profit: $354,121
• Equity at exit: $2,535

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 181.78×
• Total profit: $860,524
• Equity at exit: $1,470

Cash invested: $4,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,752 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$21 /mo · $255/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,628
• Net cashflow: $5,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $17,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,149	-5% $5,143	+0% $5,138	+5% $5,132	+10% $5,126
Rent	-10% $4,525	-5% $4,831	+0% $5,138	+5% $5,444	+10% $5,750
Rate	-1.0pp $5,146	-0.5pp $5,142	base $5,138	+0.5pp $5,133	+1.0pp $5,129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,250
• Closing costs: $510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	44d	1	0.90mi
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	44d	1	0.90mi
11357 Brockway Rd Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$4,500	$2.34	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $17,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $17,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$952
• − Property taxes: −$255
• − Insurance: −$85
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,442
• − Management: −$7,442
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$495
• Taxable income: $65,925
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,822
• After-tax cash flow: $45,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $17,000 TSMLS