Estero Plan · Conroe, TX 77318

$242,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Estero/T30E plan is a charming single-story home featured in the Lexington Heights community. Featuring two classic front exteriors, this four-bedroom, two-bathroom home also offers 1573 square feet of living space and a two-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, shaker style cabinets, stainless-steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop, shaker style cabinetry and a spacious tiled walk-in shower. Enjoy additional storage with a large walk-in closet in the primary bedroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Estero floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Quartz counter tops
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $240,631.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($356/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,831 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,631
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: 0.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11695 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,573 (0%)	0mo	$243,990	$155	99
11953 Barbaro Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-6%)	1mo	$251,990	$171	88
11783 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-9%)	0mo	$234,990	$164	80
11703 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-9%)	0mo	$237,990	$166	79
11779 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	3mo	$239,990	$163	79
11683 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-9%)	3mo	$234,990	$164	78
12014 Curlin Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+14%)	1mo	$284,900	$160	73
11814 Serena's Song Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-0%)	0mo	$276,490	$176	71
11810 Serena's Song Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-6%)	1mo	$263,990	$179	69
11822 Serena's Song	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+5%)	2mo	$259,990	$157	66
12010 Noble Heart Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+5%)	4mo	$270,990	$164	65
11631 Ruffian Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	0mo	$241,990	$165	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-43,349
• Equity at exit: $35,879

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-59,448
• Equity at exit: $20,805

Cash invested: $67,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$301 /mo · $3,609/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,105

Max offer price $240,631

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,158
• Closing costs: $7,219
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11848 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	24d	1	0.46mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	43d	1	0.57mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,925	$1.38	18d	1	1.31mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,965	$1.36	5d	1	1.33mi
12983 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$2,250	$1.33	17d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,990 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,990 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,990 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,990 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,990 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,990 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,990 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    price $242,990 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    The Estero/T30E plan is a charming single-story home featured in the Lexington Heights community. Featuring two classic front exteriors, this four-bedroom, two-bathroom home also offers 1573 square feet of living space and a two-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, shaker style cabinets, stainless-steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop, shaker style cabinetry and a spacious tiled walk-in shower. Enjoy additional storage with a large walk-in closet in the primary bedroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Estero floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

15. 2026-04-02
    price $241,990 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    The Estero/T30E plan is a charming single-story home featured in the Lexington Heights community. Featuring two classic front exteriors, this four-bedroom, two-bathroom home also offers 1573 square feet of living space and a two-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, shaker style cabinets, stainless-steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop, shaker style cabinetry and a spacious tiled walk-in shower. Enjoy additional storage with a large walk-in closet in the primary bedroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Estero floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

16. 2025-12-12
    listed $240,990 Active 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    The Estero/T30E plan is a charming single-story home featured in the Lexington Heights community. Featuring two classic front exteriors, this four-bedroom, two-bathroom home also offers 1573 square feet of living space and a two-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, shaker style cabinets, stainless-steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop, shaker style cabinetry and a spacious tiled walk-in shower. Enjoy additional storage with a large walk-in closet in the primary bedroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Estero floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,479
• − Property taxes: −$3,609
• − Insurance: −$1,203
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$7,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$887
• After-tax cash flow: $1,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in the Lexington Heights community is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a well-maintained exterior, good kitchen and bathroom finishes, and hardwood flooring. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Adds visual interest and functionality
• Resale Bathroom vanity lighting — Improves aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Adds visual interest and functionality ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity lighting — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $240,990 Zillow