555 Beaver Run · Latexo, TX 75844

$89,996

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2021 10,672 sqft lot $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home is looking for it's new loving family. Just a few scars, but ready to make loving new memories. Open concept with a split floor plan. This 2021, 3 bedroom 2 bath, is perfect for a permanent residence or weekend retreat. Tejas Shores offers a boat ramp to the beautiful Houston County Lake. Enjoy the parks and abdunts of wildlife here. The deer will play on your fron yard. Come enjoy the peace and quiet.

Key facts

• Houston county lake
• Peace and quiet
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BOAT RAMP
• HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE
• ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE
• PEACE AND QUIET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Tejas Shores POA with annual fee of $130; Community amenities include boat ramp, picnic area, playground

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2021; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Located in a subdivision; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (sizes: 10x16, 10x10, 16x14)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen-family room combo; Laminate counters; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub-shower; Kitchen-dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,175 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Latexo ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #365 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Latexo H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 199 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Latexo ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,296 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.70%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $27,562
• Equity at exit: $44,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $75,481
• Equity at exit: $71,773

Cash invested: $25,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75844

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $89,996

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $229	+0% $204	+5% $178	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $163	+0% $204	+5% $244	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $227	base $204	+0.5pp $180	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,499
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,996 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,996 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,996 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,996 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,996 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,996 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,996 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $89,996 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,596 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,596 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,596 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,596 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,596 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,596 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,596 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,596 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $92,596 Active 415-char remark
18. 2025-11-30
    historical
19. 2025-08-22
    price $130,000
20. 2025-07-24
    price $140,000
21. 2025-06-14
    price $150,000
22. 2025-05-30
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2021-06-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$255
• After-tax cash flow: $2,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Latexo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826910
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,145
• Composite: 35.17/100
• National rank: #5002
• State rank: #365 of 826 in TX

Livability — Latexo

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1175
• US rank: #20575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 76
• Population (ZIP): 5,004

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 174.906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $89,996 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $92,596 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+38.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.